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Muscle Pharm Corp. Message Board

  • fkk_kass fkk_kass Dec 30, 2013 1:59 PM Flag

    "FitMiss Delight™ will be available nationwide in all 7,000 Walgreens stores beginning January 2014"

    I hope "beginning January 2014" means beginning January 1, 2014".
    The nice thing about the number 7,000 is that it is a big number. The nice thing about big numbers is that when you multiply them by other positive integers, the result is an even bigger number.
    For example, consider the formula A = B * C * D. These variables COULD represent anything, but imagine that one CHOOSES to define them as follows:
    A = "Total Q1 Walgreens Sales"
    B = "Number of Walgreens stores"
    C = "Walgreens Per-Day, Per-Store Sales"
    D = "Number of days in Q1"
    The approximate values of B and D are known (7,000 and 91), so the only fun variable to play around with is C (which, of course, directly impacts the value of A).
    Let's start by setting C to $1.00 - i.e., each Walgreens store sells, on average, $1.00 worth (based on wholesale prices) of FitMiss product per day. This would obviously represent a pretty poor outcome. Yet, because D is a reasonably large number - and A is a large number indeed - this would increase MSLP Q1 revenue by $637,000. This is not a trivial number, as it represents about 2.25% of Q3 net sales. If things go better, and sales are $3 per-store per-day, we're talking about a pretty-significant $2M increase in sales.
    I have no idea exactly which FitMiss Delight product(s) will be available for sale, but let's say it's the roughly $20 1.13 item I found available at Wags online. If there is a 100% markup on this, then Wags pays $10. If one item is sold per-store per-day, then the impact on MSLP sales revenue would be approximately $6.37M.
    That, combined will the Arnold line, would lead me to expect Q1 gross sales to come in around $40M. Based on that, what's a reasonable projection for full-year 2014 (given that additional products are supposed to be available at Costco and Walgreens in June)? I think $170M would be very conservative.
    Of course, the per-store per-day revenue figure could come in far lower than $10.
    But it could also come in higher....

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