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ATRION Corp. Message Board

  • alexalekhine alexalekhine Aug 1, 2005 8:54 AM Flag

    This morning's opening.....

    .....should be very interesting indeed.

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    • Some of the recent buyers believed the silly Zacks estimates...it will take a few months to work off the froth IMO. The stock still trades at a decent discount to my estimate of PMV. Trading sideways for a while is probably the best thing for everyone.

      • 4 Replies to microcapguru
      • Sorry about the typo in the previous post. In 2004, EPS was $.78 in 2Q v. $.70 in 1Q.

      • I don't think that Q2 is usually lower than Q1:
        EPS: 2001 -- .56 in 2Q versus .43 in 1Q
        2002 -- .49 in 2Q v. .53 in 1Q
        2003 -- .63 in 2Q v. .61 in 1Q
        2004 -- .78 in 2Q v. .79 in 1Q.

        Sales: (I don't have 2001 handy)
        2002 -- 14.8 in 2Q v. 14.8 in 1Q
        2003 -- 16.2 in 2Q v. 15.7 in 1Q
        2004 -- 16.8 in 2Q v. 16.4 in 1Q

        There's some noise in the results, but overall, I think 2Q's have been better than 1Q. Also, I can't think of a reason why this should be a seasonal business with 2Q worse than 1Q.

        Also, if you read management's comments last quarter as saying we should have expected a worse 2Q (as opposed to a worse 2Q just being possible because 1Q was very good), then you're better at reading between the lines than I am.

        Overall, I think it was reasonable to expect this quarter was going to be a little better than last quarter, and instead it was a little worse. I don't think the market's reaction (down about $7.50 as of now) is irrational.

        Just my $.02

      • I forgot to ask, what are the Zack estimates?

      • I thought it would be down a little more (low 70's).
        The fun thing about such small companies is that there is not much analyst opinion, so people have to make their own judgments.
        My bottom line: both sales and earnings were down a little from the previous quarter, and this is not a seasonal business. Yes, the previous quarter was great, but I (and I think most people) didn't expect this one wouldn't be quite as good; the warning last quarter was just that there was no guarantee that the same high margin product mix would be maintained in the next quarter -- I definitely didn't read it as warning that we should EXPECT it not to be as good of a quarter
        I still really like the company, but IMHO at least a short term pullback is justified.

 
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