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ATRION Corp. Message Board

  • alexalekhine alexalekhine Oct 9, 2008 11:30 PM Flag

    Quick 08Q3 estimates

    I'll give it a shot here, though I cannot claim to have real information.

    Predictions/Assumptions
    Revenue $22.5million +5.6 Yoy
    Gross Margin: 45% vs. 42.7 may be a tad high
    Tax Rate 34% may also be a bit high
    EBITDA 7.1 million vs. $6.15 million YoY
    EPS 1.85 FD vs. $1.72 FD (adjusted) on normal higher shares out sequentially.

    Cash $12.25 million, up sequentially from $7.8 million in June

    Capex $2.25 million unchanged

    LTM FD EPS $7.31/share

    Rolling on in the same fashion as in the past.

    Look for management to provide very cautionary commentary about the economic outlook.

    I am hopeful (but not expecting) to hear about
    1) future use of building cash balances
    2) new product introductions or developments


    Frankly, I don;t care if people think I'm nuts for making these predictions...they are meant more as a way to document my expectations before the event and a way to measure reality against expectations.

    aa

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    • Revenue 23.5 million compared to estimate of 22.5 million, 10% growth vs. 5.6% estimate.

      Gross Margin: 43.6% vs. estimated @ 45.

      So I was low on revenue growth and high on margin

      Tax rate: 31.9% vs. estimated at 34%...I was trying to be conservative

      EBITDA: Gotta wait for the Q

      EPS $1.99 vs estimate of $1.85

      Cash: $13.85 million vs. estimate of $12.5 million...better

      I misunderestimated them again.

      Silly me.

      aa

      • 2 Replies to alexalekhine
      • Correction: The cash of 13.845 does not include $3.000 drawn on the company's Line of Credit.

        Who knows?
        A greater preference to hold liquidity in the current environment
        A desire to test the bank by drawing on the line of credit

        I cannot see any significant reason to have used the credit line

        Inany case, LTM EBITDA is approximately $27.5 million, so EV/LTM EBITDA is about 9x, or an 11% earnings yield.

        Pretty good.

        aa

      • Their record over the past 10 years is really remarkable.

        I really do believe they have the most persistent double digit eps growth of any public company during that period [though i am way too lazy to actually check.]

        But I think there are only about 8 of us that know or care LOL

        PS still 52,113 shares short as of 10/15 down from a peak of 100,753 in July.

 
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