I have been doing this a long time, and unfortunately, even the best investors and best companies get blindsided every now and again. In hindsight, it's remarkable how long this company has grown consistently, even post 9/11 and right through 2008-2009.
Not to sugarcoat anything-- I didn't see it coming and I think the market response was appropriate given the lower earnings for the year and the uncertainly created. Let's remember that they will still make a lot of money this year and I estimate they will have $70mm cash [$35/share] at year end. That's about 16% of today's market cap. Obviously, there is a lot of firepower to repurchase shares during the year and I hope the company does so judiciously.
If, and granted these are significant ifs, the company is able to repurchase a decent amount of stock and the inventory issue resolves itself in due time, 2013 could be a very big year and this will be a great entry point. Always remember, this year's bad numbers are next year's easy comparisons! Q1 and Q2 of this year were going to be difficult anyway because of the depreciation issue that the company has outlined.
Agree with micro that TA is not of value in almost all cases. The only success I have ever had in my long investing career with technicals is using some volume patterns on very thinly traded stocks where "large" buyers came in on a fairly regular basis.
I do plan on digging further into the opthalmic business issue with a call to Atrion soon.