TODAYS DURABLE GOODS # SHOWS HOW REALLY FAWKIN BAD CHIT IS..
This number is just plain bad.
There's no spin available here that works folks. Among new order categories primary metals were off 6.7% and machinery was in outright collapse (down 10.4% and shipments off 5.7%!), with computer orders off 10.1% and shipments off 7%. Communications gear was flat.
This had better be a one-off, although I suspect it is not. The expiration of the 100% expensing on capital goods is likely responsible for this shift, and shows exactly how ugly that "pull forward" really was last year. It is entirely possible that this was the only thing holding up durable goods orders, and if so I hope everyone's ready for the impact when this filters through into people's GDP estimates and, of course, actual economic results.
I would say we would not have otherwise they would not have made the tax benefit in the first place.
They are trying everything to jump start the economy and NONE if it is working. Recession is coming and is already painfully evident in Europe. No way European governments can make it now, defaults aplenty coming down the pike. Oh, and California and Illinois are right up there also.
that number was horrible, but the market completely ignored it. It's difficult to tell what's going on. PMI numbers have been stellar, retail has been bad, while construction spending has been great. The Durable Orders numbers is a huge red flag, but it could just be a blip. Market doesn't seem to put a lot of weight on it.
"that number was horrible, but the market completely ignored it."
Exactly. So ignore the notion that there is a direct relationship to the economic news. That notion is what CNBS sells. It sounds like it SHOULD work, but it doesn't.
It was predictable that news that might have caused a downturn in the market at another time was NOT going to do it now. And it's not like ignored bad news piles up somewhere to come back and take an added toll on the indexes in the future. That idea is simply someone making excuses for their mistakes. Wall Street is built by worthless professionals making excuses for themselves.