Well written thoughts here. First, Oxford has been in business since 1985, and managing their bottom line through vacillating pricing disparities is familiar territory. After 35 years in business, I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt that they know how to get in front of an issue, rather than trying to play catch up. Second, 95% of their coal inventory is already sold under fixed contracted pricing to utilities throughout Ohio, Kentucky, and Illinois, therefore we need not fear any unanticipated price fluctuations for 2013. Finally, CEP is an interesting chart, but I don't see the comparison to OXF. CEP, cut it's dividend back in May of 2009, and was already trading at an all time low prior to the cut (03/27/09, $1.55). The chart shows that CEP, rallied for six months (6/10/09 -01/22/10, $2.16 - $4.84 Per Share) directly after the cut, more than doubling in price. If OXF did the same, todays share price of $3.50 would rally to $7.84 rather quickly. Right now, the shorts are having their fun, but OXF will rally to the upside as quickly as she has come down. Don't panic, bet big!
Sentiment: Strong Buy