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Datalink Corporation Message Board

  • LFchachere LFchachere Feb 3, 2000 10:33 PM Flag

    insiders cant sell until after earnings

    They are in black-out period so is

    I short lock-ups all the time, most recently ACRU,
    MCSW, CTCH today - and everybody I collaborate with
    decided against shorting this one.

    Indeed, if the
    5% dip had anything to do with it, I doubt as 19-21
    is the 'gyration range'- lockups which work, ie
    involve dumping almost always tank 10-15%. This did not.
    No surprise, I am long and staying long. DTLK is one
    which runs up towards earnings.

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    • So I can load up more. This is a no brainer at 16-17.

    • i predict that we will see 17 may be even 16 before we get to 27.

    • take a look at action on a couple others before
      their earnings, ISPD and FFIV.

      I now predict
      that DTLK will be trading at $27 before close on Feb

      ISPD has some striking similarities:

      1. both
      dipped below 50-day avg,
      2. next day both dipped
      again below an established bottom resistance $19 for
      DtLK, $17 on ISPD - most action happened in afternoon
      where they each dropped $1 dollar, then for a very
      brief time dropped $2s and quickly bounced back up

      3. The close on both was approx. 33% of all time

      what ensued - ISPD which saw $15 briefly, never saw
      that again, and following day managed to recover to
      $17s - ISPD then proceeded on a very steady uptrend
      until Thurs before earnings closed at prior all time
      high, ie. up 50% from $16 close.
      What is the
      game, well I got disgusted and dumped the ISPD at $16.
      Another poster today admitted he dumped that day when he
      saw this.

      It may be that MMs really do try to
      shake people out, as I know it works - they just push
      the price to get holders disgusted, though I doubt
      this works with those not watching!

      DTLK closed
      at 25 times 1999 earnings. I have no fear whatsoever
      that this can crash, so of course did not sell. I
      suspect the nervous folks here could care less about the
      P/E ratio.
      ISPD was a much more difficult
      hold as it loses money.

      FFIV, a very good
      stock, with earnings, also one day about 2 weeks in
      advance dipped into 80s, closing about $90. Only had that
      chance once. Over course of next two weeks it ran to
      $130s, ummm, a 50% run-up from that low

      I have put 90% into SCMR for the 3-1 split and
      earnings run, and only 9% in DTLK, but if I were not
      loaded, I wish I could load up on Monday morning! - I am
      only expecting a 50% run on SCMR by Feb 17 anyway.

      DtLK may not prove this pattern, but how can it go
      down much more and stay down, seriously? If not a 50%
      run-up, hitting the cyclical $21 is so likely the next
      couple weeks it isn't funny. That in itself is a 16% 2
      week gain - which is quite good as far as I am
      I right now envy anybody with free cash to take
      advantage of this possibility ...

    • BRUT is an independent market maker who
      represents order flow no matter where it comes from.
      Insiders, institutions, and other large block holders use
      them to work the order without showing their hand.
      What appears to be happening is a battle of the
      analysts. Kinnard has been on the bid, while Needham has
      been on the ask. Interestingly Needham has the low
      estimate of 15 cents while Kinnard has an estimate of 17
      cents. Normally this kind of action has little effect on
      the price but low float complicates things.

      am still nervous. Stocks with good earnings usually
      hint by going UP not down in the weeks

      Best o luck

      Agent Kujan

    • I use E*Trade for Level II.

    • I don't know who BRUT is, but it sounds like what you see is good news - no mass rush for the exit doors.

      Just picked up more at 18.........


    • I'd appreciate the info-glad to hear your seeing
      only the one seller, but I'd like to see for myself if
      I can-Thanks and still long too-even thinking about
      doubling down at these ridiculous prices-What the hell!!!

    • Still long DTLK and still trying to be patient waiting for the day The Street properly values DTLK.

    • I hope that is the reason for the

      Geez, we've fallen almost as much as STK
      percentage-wise. They have bounced up a little today and we're
      still struggling.

      It's not like we sell STK
      only. STK's problems are STK's. Did other storage
      companies get whacked?

      Having a good PR/IR
      department would be nice at times like this. One day last
      month, Lucent warned after the bell. Lucent was down
      big, but so were a lot of other companies especially
      its competitors (like Nortel and Cisco). Cisco
      quickly put a end to that nonsense with a "no change in
      guidance" statement. The street realized the Lucent's
      problems were Lucent's and not the industry's. Not only
      did Cisco reverse the after hours losses by opening
      at the previous close, they were up like 3 to 5
      points (I forget exactly) that day.

      Still long
      DTLK and still trying to be patient waiting for the
      day The Street properly values DTLK.

    • According to Level II, for the past 3 days, BRUT
      has consistantly been on the ask side with 1000
      shares. The number never changes, and the ask keeps
      moving down when buyers dry up. It appears that 1
      shareholder is doing all of the selling. We know it is not
      insiders becasue of the lockup and blackout periods.
      Anyone know who BRUT is? I think that once this seller
      cashes out, we are staged for a strong rebound due to
      the upcoming earnings announcement. If there were any
      worry that earnings were down, given how late they are
      reporting, we would have received a warning from the
      company. Therefore, I believe that we will easily beat
      projections, particularly given the deal with Brocade.

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