Factors outside of its immediate financials will affect glbz stock price. Senior management and the board continues to age in an industry that will continue to consolidate. Moreover, the bank really does not have a strong strategic competitive advantage. no innovative products, no low-cost products. no economies of scale.etc. prediction: bank will be bought at $20-$25 with three years. no insider info.
You are generally correct EXCEPT I think it is highly improbable the bank will be bought in the foreseeable future. The board is dominated by locals who are scions of the bank’s founders. They think of it as THEIR bank and, for emotional and egotistical reasons, they will never relinquish control voluntarily.
I believe the bank will continue to muddle along without direction or distinction. A run-of-the-mill 1.0 times book value per share or a bit less is a fair price. Current book value per share is $12.22 which is right around its current trading price.
1. Negative -This bank is NOT a candidate for purchase as long as current management is in place so no stock price premium here.
2. Negative - Lack of growth
3. Negative - Lack innovation
4. Neutral - decent valuation metrics including book value per share and EPS
5. Plus - absence of problems plaguing many other banks such as high delinquency rate, management turmoil, weak capital levels, etc..
6. Plus - good cash dividend yield
7. Plus - consistent performance without any significant short-term volatility