If SIGA wins the stock will soar as investors would expect $1 in earnings and a $10 stock price. If SIGA loses or settles, they will earn half as much - or .50 a share - which should translate to a $4-$5 stock price.
What you're "missing" is apparently sleeping through that Logic 101 class. Right now...today...ST-246 is basically a 50-50 proposition with Siga after the first 50 mil in net profits comes back to Siga,
For the sake of argument let's say the entire case is reversed and PIP gets nothing. Logic would say Siga stock should double from current levels because they now have 100% of the pie, versus 50%That would put the price of the stock from $5.50-$6.00...not $10.
If Siga loses the stock will most likely trade down to $2.00--$2.50 because built into the current price of Siga stock is some "hope" premium they will win the appeal.
What you really fail to understand is Siga stock is like a depleting oil royalty trust.
Once the oil is gone, there is nothing else left for shareholders. That is the situation with Siga and the Barda contract. Once Phase 1 runs its course, it's basically the ballgame for Siga as a company unless that contract is somehow renewed. Your earnings projections imply a never ending stream of revenue from Barda. Ain't going to happen iMHO.