I can't imagine a more painful message board! One where longs constantly slam management, shorts bash, and others just hype. Look.......the last few years have been painful for Siga shareholders. This is not disputable. But stocks look 6 months out. Not 2-3 years behind. Why is this at $3.54? Because management has dropped the ball on so many things from Barda to dilution to....etc.
But....markets are never rationale. So as investors, gamblers, or haters, one has to determine what the future holds. Only then can you figure out what this stock's true "value" is. So until the court decision is announced, the overhang will remain. The courts have let Siga down before. So there's obviously no way for ANYONE to know how this will turn out?
But it's all perspective: a man loses his legs in an accident. One man says "my life is over, I'll never walk again." Another man might say "thank goodness I'm still alive." Siga is still alive. The fda will not give us approval for several more years. Competition will grow (CMRX.) But in the all the haze, many positives can occur.
500,000 shipments will be a big milestone. And if the court even reduces damages slightly, I think we can see a bump. Jet invested 5%. And one of their owners has a law degree from Harvard. I guess we know what their thoughts are on the appeal? Yes.....this will be stagnant without direction. Markets hate uncertainty. But behind the scenes, maybe they are working on Denge or other things? They don't announce every tiny step. Only the milestones.
Today we sit at these levels. But after the court case you can be sure we'll either be back in the $2's or perhaps as high #$%$ or $6. The only thing you need to do is wait and decide if your money is better off invested here or elsewhere? I've already made my decision: 7,000 shares long and 150 june $4 calls.
drchick....Your post is logical and well written, and argues well for those speculating on a successful appeal outcome for Siga. For that, there really isn't any argument. Throw the dice and heads you win, and tails you lose. Fine. I say go for it. A couple of points up on a damages reversal, and even more if the entire verdict
is thrown out. They affirm the verdict in it's entirety and maybe the stock falls back to $3, or possibly a tad below.
With that said you, provided no real rationale why anyone would hold the stock past the verdict announcement. "Maybe they are working on Denge or other things?" Problem is you, and other shareholders, really don't know do you? Don't you find that fact alone a tad strange? They don't announce "every tiny step"? They haven't announced any steps in years frankly...Tiny or not. They only announce "milestones"? OK...what pipeline milestones have been announced in the last two years or so? Seriously. "Behind the scenes" they could be working on the ultimate cure for all cancers as far as shareholders know. Are pipeline efforts part of some CIA hush order, or just bad management and/or PR? You tell me,
Your position in Siga in stock, and double that in options (calls), is not investing. It's speculation on an event.
No problem whatsoever with that, but let's call it like it is.
It's so rare to see a logical retort on this board, that I'll gladly reply. First off, I don't disagree with 90% of what you wrote. I am speculating/gambling on the decision with my options which are already down 30%. (That's right, I said down. I know no one ever admits that on these boards.)
Having said that, my 7000 shares long, ARE an investment. Most of what you said is correct. Guidance has been abysmal, really 0, from this company. But you have to ponder why? It's easy to say that since management "dropped the ball" before, it must be that they again are letting us down. But that is not necessarily the case. Do you think they can move forward without knowing what they will have to pay PIP?
Read that line again. It is that paramount. There is the potential that they pay $5 million, $40 million, over $100 million. These are great number discrepencies. Until the verdict is rendered, they have to slow things down. It has been a big drag on the company, R&D, and the stock.
I do believe that if the court reverses most of the damages, aside from the immediate gains, within a year's time, we see another contract with Israel, or perhaps another country of ST-246. Denge and all other antiviral possibilities will also be stepped up. And even greater, the stock can begin to achieve its true value. I have not owned this for years as others have, so perhaps my perspective is different.
What you wrote is very true. But I see some of it, slightly differently. Thanks
I know I don't have to tell you because I'm sure you know that if you heed the know-it-all baggies
posting 24/7 on this board, you do so at your financial & mental peril.
I know, you know & many others know that you have INVESTED in 1) a major proven CURE that is the ONLY CURE in the world for poxes, 2)a huge USG contract, 3) a very savvy management/ownership, 4) a very
promising COMMERC IAL pharma future , & 5) a real deal & not a phoney baloney startup biotech,NWJ?
However, you may want to move those options out 1-3 months since I have significant reservations about
the desire of the Supremes to provide a speedy resolution to the appeal,NWJ?
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Rightly put, and thanks. This is one of those rare boards where the longs have to ignore the "longs" who dominate the board with bitter sarcasm and straightforward invective. The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity. The scars from a couple of years of attack from Chimerix via protests and a scurrilous media campaign, augmented by a bizarre court decision, have left their mark on people here. And yet we still have a big contract, a great product, and a helluva shot at winning the case on appeal (in the next 12 days). Whether there will be a follow on to this contract I think nobody knows, but since BARDA wanted it two years ago, I wouldn't be surprised if they want it now. Best luck to us all.
Glaxo-Smith-Kline just announced a contract with Barda of up to $200 mil to develop medical countermeasures to bio-terror threats. Doesn't bode well for small companies such as PIP, SIGA and Chimerix, unless they become buy-out targets.
Right....ignore the people that speak the truth and just continue keeping your head in the sand. A lot of good that has done for you. Glad I sold some at 3.65 and 3.87. You've lost since that time. A better strategy would be to not fall in love with a stock... especially when the CEO is a moron.