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SIGA Technologies Inc. Message Board

  • tla_usa tla_usa Jul 17, 2013 6:39 PM Flag

    Paper today in Nature -- Smallpox release vulnerablity of countries.

    Two comments on the paper in Nature. One. The paper suggests that a bio-attack could be indirectly made on the USA by attacking say France directly. Two. The papers findings suggest that one should not be surprised that the BARDA assessments of medical countermeasure needs based on the older models may need to be revised. And more countries have a vulnerability then models initially suggested.
    Extracts below from paper published July 17, 2013 in Nature
    The authors declare no competing financial interest. And the views and conclusions are not of those of any institution.
    Dual-use risk data not included in paper.
    The potential threat represented by the global effects of a targeted smallpox release event has yet to be analyzed with the use of explicit models. Here, building on previous work, we have developed a large scale
    structured meta-population model that accurately describes the world wide spread of smallpox during the initial period of time between the occurrence of the intentional virus release and its detection by health officials. Thus we focus here on the level of worldwide diffusion of smallpox cases before any containment/mitigation policy can be implemented The first scenario depicts the intentional release from 5 individuals who successfully infect themselves with the virus in a major Western metropolis.
    These individuals move freely within the city (avoiding detection) and expose civilians to infection until they are removed from the population. The five individuals follow a deliberate release strategy and do not attempt international travel in order to limit the possibility of detection. As well, they do not seek medical care.
    The 95% internal for the number of infected countries at the end of 21 days is 9 to 22 countries for the first scenario.

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