First, I got this username this morning. I have never posted anything, anywhere under any username of any kind. I apologize for my typos and my naiveté from the outset.
Disclaimers and background: I have been reading this message board for several years. I own personally well over 1 million shares of Siga. I have been investing and trading in the stock market for over 30 years both professionally and privately. I am retired now. My average cost, though it should have no impact on my decision making, for about 700,000 shares is 3.25. The rest of my stock is harder to know exactly (because the on line software is pretty weak) but is certainly under 4 dollars. I am sorry I can't be exact.
Why post here now? Well I shouldn't be doing it but Judge Parson's will rule eventually and I want to be out there before he does. What will he rule this time? Clearly I don't know. It is very clear what he believes and how he thinks Don Drapkin and Ron Perlman should be treated. I personally think he is wrong about his beliefs but they are what they are. More on that in a minute. It seems most likely to me that he finds another way to give approximately ½ of the economic benefit of ST 246 to PIP. That is my investment assumption. I honestly have no idea with corporate law and my understanding of it how he does that. The extremes: he gives PIP as much as he possibly can - reliance -- the drug itself -- and Siga collects a royalty on sales. Imagine that for a 3 million dollar loan over an extraordinarily short time that was paid back with interest. Astonishing if so. The other extreme: he gives into the Siga lawyers and their arguments that no matter how badly the actors on Siga's side behaved there is no remedy is this court for their action. He awards them 15mm dollars, a wildly exaggerated damages amount.
Back to what actually happened with the merger agreement and the optional LATS agreement in case the merger wasn't consummated. In reality the merger agreement seemed real.
I think you have posted many times under different user names the same old worn out arguments. You are either a liar or a fool or both. You do not own over a million shares of Siga . . . only an absolute fool would. Good try and thanks for playing.
Calculated, everything you say makes sense. Thank you for explaining your viewpoint.
I'm with you, it's hard to appreciate PIP's case against SIGA. Then you raise the interesting question, what is the market for ST-246 ? Someplace on the CSPAN website there is video of the original hearings when Congress first set up BARDA. It seemed like the witnesses and that one congressional committee really wanted to support small companies to research biodefense drugs, and allow them to make money on the sales. Now I'm not an expert, but one gets the general feeling that the funding does not live up to that vision. The obvious next thought is that some event could re-awaken big interest in biodefense, including by the congress. Let's hope no scary things happen ever, but they might.
Sorry - I am replying to my own post. No idea how I am supposed to continue.
Yes, the merger attempt seemed real but once it wasn't finalized by PIP coming up with the cash (and it would have been if they had). The LATS was, in nearly all but one very narrow case, doomed from the outset. This of course was all because of the Non Human Trial results being released. If in fact the drug worked, it was worth 10,100 even 1000 times more than Siga was asking - IF it didn't work and the monkeys died it was worth exactly zero. PIP would never have followed through with the LATS in that case just as SIGA could never follow through if it in fact was the cure. The very real chance that the trial was indeterminate (some lived - some died) then the LATS was likely a good "jumping off place".
Judge Parsons in my opinion has been jaded by the questionable cast of characters Siga put in front of him. He has mistakenly confused their behavior in his court with the legal issues at hand. He in essence is agreeing that PIP should have a free call on wether the NHP trials were successful -- THEY SHOUD NOT.
I could go on for many pages. But consider this -- If in fact PIP "knew" what ST 246 was worth back 7 years ago why did they not buy Siga's stock at 1/200 of that value? Why did they not make another offer for the company? Their actions in no way reflect what they profess rabidly today. Judges make mistakes every day. My assumption is again that his mistake stands in one way or another and PIP gets about ½ of the economics. I do own about 75,000 shares of PIP, just for fair disclosure. On to RISK/REWARD of owning Siga in that case.
Assume 50% to Siga. -- Once this trial is over - after appeals have run their course, is it actually believable that BARDA, HHS, and CDC have gone to this trouble to buy 2mm courses of a smallpox drug? Don't be ridiculous. They have stated a need of 12mm courses and I believe the real number is 2 or 3 times that amount. yes CMX001 may well work
CMX may well work -- but it is not a drug to be given prophylactically - the side effects are not even close to acceptable. The smallpox drug race is over - no one else will pay the entry fee. ST 246 is your winner. Hopefully we will never need it. Somehow I doubt that though. For a couple of billion dollars in a trillion dollar budget we don't have to take that risk.
Do you people actually know what is going on with the FDA? I do not but I have some ideas. I think the animal rule was made for exactly this scenario and I think they will in fact approve the drug. If we have a catastrophe human created or natural, do they want to be responsible for keeping this drug from citizens? If it is approved why is the market size? Only doomsdaypreppers? Only foreign governments? (Do you think Teva doesn't already make this drug for Israel? I am not sure but if I were a leader there they would - I also think when the dust settles a deal will be done. Finally a place where Perlman might actually be an asset). I am not going to do the math for you -- But an FDA approved drug, foreign sales to our allies who arguably need it worse than we, and healthcare facilities stockpiling for first responders, as well as those more cautious about the future than I -- This is a massive market for a drug that cures and prevents one of the very worst diseases known of all time. Imagine it could be used as a weapon (again - only on a regional scale) -- imagine.
Well I know the downside -- Siga's stock goes to zero -- BTW, they have in my estimation 135mm in cash as I type this - they are hiding it wherever they can.. AND they have no debt.(Companies with no debt - don't go under) Do you guys on the short side know the upside -- I'm just saying -- a little over 55mm shares -- with billions of dollars in potential sales (50% aftertax margin) and a 20% per year replacement market for date expired drug. Honestly, it's an extraordinarily high number.
Thanks for reading, GLTA.