It is a long read but it appears PIP is entitled expectation damages for profits on the sale of 14,903,245 courses at $100 a pop? (plus some legal fees). I look forward to someone replying that has an idea of how much cash this would amount to -- it sounds like it could add up to a lot.
The only thing that is clear is that PIP gets no license and no damages for any sales beyond that, so if SIGA can be successful selling a lot of ST-246 in the future and also gets FDA approval (increase price) this is good news. While it should be very easy to appeal the awarding expectation damages, the question will be whether it's worth another extended period of uncertainty and a potentially worse decision once it is overturned (based on how much cash this really amounts to).
I'm surprised nobody's offered a serious estimate (only coveman and golong's illogical numbers). Here's my guess...
The Baliban estimate that Parson's thought was most appropriate came up with a number of 1.07B. This model assumed the sale of 91.9M courses from 2008 to 2017 (this is not clearly linked to the 1.07B, but that's how I'd read it) - Parsons said their expectation award is for 14.9M courses from 2010 to 2014. Doing simple math based on courses sold, this would estimate the award at $173M. Furthermore, If I'm reading it right, Baliban used a 23.1% discount rate to bring sales to present day values (not sure what he was smoking there). If his estimate was made in 2014, then that would double any of the profits made in 2010 (more so in 2008 and less afterwards, actually hurting 2017). Since 2014 is deep into the range from 2008 to 2017, his high rate inflated the overall number. Also, the profit margin should be lower the less courses you sell, less dilution of development/capital costs.
Given all of this - my guess is that the corrected model that Parsons envisions would come up with award of $120M (plus or minus $30M?).
Pg. 40 of opinion...."Having considered the evidence presented at trial, I conclude that Baliban's model
incorporates a reasonable estimate of PharmAthene's estimate of PharmAthene's projected ST-246
sales at the time of Siga's bad faith breach."
Pg. 42 of opinion...In summary, I conclude that PharmAthene has carried it's burden of proving with reasonable certainty that, at the time of Siga's breach, it had a reasonable expectation that if's first sale
to SNS would be of 14.778 million courses"...(then goes on to add 250,00 for DOD sales)