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SIGA Technologies Inc. Message Board

  • polgringo polgringo Aug 15, 2014 8:47 PM Flag

    To csmclemore and frwdlook

    What price of SIGA and PIP shares are you guys predicting for next Friday, 8/22? Thanks!

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    • Ignoring what appears to be some unusual aftermarket trading that suggests it is up $0.11 on a day when it was mostly down and closed flat, I think most of the initial excitement from last week's decision has passed for both. I tend to ignore aftermarket because volumes are significantly lower than market hours. Same could be said for SIGA (except it doesn't appear to be showing aftermarket activity).

      Report from expert witness is due to be delivered by legal counsel 10 days after decision. That would be either Friday Aug. 22 or Monday Aug. 25. So I don't think we see movement this coming week like we did last.

      Clearly PIP has continued to rise in days after initial decision and SIGA has continued its slide. As such I think PIP stays somewhat range bound as investors wait to see if the damage award is as good as expected. I would be surprised if the stock trades above $2.40 or below $2.00. For SIGA, I think the worst of the selling has passed this week. If modest selling continues to pressure the stock I still think it could hold above $1.20 (despite intraday weakness a couple of times in went into low $1.20 range but never dropped below). Needless to say, I'm not optimistic about some major institution waking up and deciding to load up on the stock and driving it to $1.50 this week either. If I had to guess, I would say it trades in the range of $1.20-$1.40 most of the week.

      Real activity and volatility for both could come following week if either party discloses expert's valuation of expectation damages.

      • 1 Reply to frwdlook
      • Real activity could come again week after next. Question remains whether we see one of the companies disclose the value the expert determines for expected damages. Who chooses to disclose is very much dependent upon what value is arrived at in my view.

        I don't think SIGA wants to see expectation damage amount disclosed unless it turns out to be well below expectations that were set this week. Oddly enough, as bad as $100 million damage award sounds, that would be considered welcome news for SIGA and grounds for the stock to rally (back near or slightly above $2/share). Barring that type of decision, I think SIGA remains silent even once they have received the report. If $200-$300 million is set as the value, I think SIGA drops below a $1 share.

        For PIP confirming award in range of $200-$300 would be significant, if they decide to disclose. While many expect this type of damage award, the significant uncertainty that exists in light of the fact that Baliban's original model remains under seal, would create upside for PIP (above $3/share) in my view if confirmed. Frankly if the award is much higher than $300 million, I don't think it will matter due to concerns that SIGA could never pay full award anyway. If the decision is below that expected range, PIP would likely trade back below $2 (e.g. at $100 million award, you would need to factor in burn between now and date of expected decision, that would mean cash value less than $2/share and discount for uncertainty on appeal).

 
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