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  • jad1148 jad1148 Sep 28, 2009 7:32 PM Flag

    10 year Treasury vs. JNJ dividend yield

    No offense intended, I just got a little irritated that a model which was once used to pump stock prices was apparently rising from the grave. That nonsense caused a lot of people a lot of financial pain and IMHO, we're still suffering from the aftershock.

    Here's another goofy model to add to the that collection:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fed_model

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    • yeah, I forgot about that one. Right now, assuming the inverse yield on the 10 year, the S&P would be trading at 30X earnings or a little more than double the current multiple. Many of these models look good for awhile then look ridiculous when "events" happen.

      Be that as it may, my thesis is somewhat analog to the Fed model because, it says investors cannot endure negative real rates of return for very long. Earning an after tax 2.7% is not an investment strategy.

 
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