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Johnson & Johnson Message Board

  • SARAH1996 SARAH1996 Dec 3, 1998 1:58 PM Flag

    JNJ is real weak !!!!

    ng. Next
    stop is $75. Anyone know if we will see highs anytime
    soon. Still cant believe the action in this stock.
    Thought it would be a good defensive play. Well its not
    turning out that way. Still very long on JNJ !!!!!

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    • You are correct regading the hostile takeovers.
      However, you fail to see recent and past history about JNJ
      and takeovers of large organizations. JNJ stinks at
      doing this. Not only does mamagement have trouble with
      external takeovers, there have been problems trying to
      merge two JNJ companies together! Been involved in
      several and survived! The culture of JNJ is so different
      from other large orgs. it can mean the difference in
      success or falure. Remember the Cordis takeover. That
      still has not cleared yet. Lifescan is another that
      took time and was not controlled well. JNJ management
      usually takes on the surface a hands off policy on the
      issues. Just sets the financial goals and sits back. They
      usually do not get involved in the day to day stuff. But
      will jump in and make changes to cut through all the
      politics when needed. JNJ management has alot on their
      plate right now.


    • I threw out the idea of a merger largely because
      as an Amgen stockholder I am unhappy about what
      seems to be a thin pipeline to me. I assume however
      that Amgen management thinks its pipeline is just fine
      and that J&J's is uninterested in absorbing a biotech
      company; though if I were a J&J shareholder I would be
      unhappy with Ortho Biotech's skimpy [one?] product line.
      Thus I have no real expectation of any merger, mainly
      because I suspect neither management has any interest in
      one. I think this is a more potent reason than any
      mutual animosity, though that may in fact exist. Neither
      management has told me how it felt about the other. Have
      they chosen to confide in you?

    • I'm smiling a little at your message. No, I'm not
      naive; but realistic with first-hand experience. Yes
      I've heard of hostile takeovers. So has JNJ. Their
      track record (see Cordis) is so successful (tongue
      deeply in cheek); like flushing a billion + of our money
      down the toilet.

      As a management consultant,
      I've seen the deepest workings of several major
      coporations. I've also worked on several M&As.

      From the
      100,000 foot persepctive (concerning product synergy),
      AMGN and JNJ are a good match (because PRI is
      useless). But will JNJ execute an M&A that would be approx.
      $25 billion (friendly) and >$30 (hostile)? That's
      a lot to swallow if there is an integration risk or
      a repeat of the management of the Cordis hostile

      It's just these Yahoo boards annoy me too
      much with the cheerleading and the constant
      unrealistic M&A trash.

      (BTW, I'm an ex-JNJer, I have
      a pretty good persepective)

    • To FLSpinDoctor:
      You appear never to have
      heard of hostile takeovers. Do you think mergers never
      take place unless both managements adore each other?
      You are not a bit naive, perhaps, are you? The fact
      that not all mergers work out well does not mean that
      there were not good and intelligent economic reasons
      for them in the first place. No one doubts that
      managements are concerned about their fate after a merger;
      but there are stockholders who vote and boards of
      directors who have a say. Management "chemistry" is not the
      only factor involved, though it is facile to act as if
      it were.

    • Biofanat,

      Intelligence and businessmen?
      Sometimes not synonymous terms. Egos are more important to
      track when you are at the board room level.

      Just look at the hard personal feelings at the
      Microsoft Anti-trust trial to answer your own question. You
      said <<...act on rational bases and do what was
      economically sensible>>. Can anybody say that the west
      coast Billionaires Boys Club is doing that? Usually
      "economically sensible" means not what is best for the firms,
      but what is best for bonuses, stock options, and
      points of power.

      Look at the normal reason
      mergers fail to consumate after announcement - who is in
      charge - not lack of business synergy. Look at the
      failed merger of E&Y and KPMG as an example. SmithKline
      and Glaxo failed the same way.

      Or the
      "economically sensible" dealings at Cendant and Sunbeam - again
      managing to egos and bonuses.

      The pharma business
      is less publically overt than the high-tech
      business, but I could not find another firm that has more
      animosity towards JNJ than AMGN. Well except USS (now Tyco)
      towards Ethicon Endoscopic.

    • I agree with the Spin Doctor's evaluation. However, a hostile takeover scenario could work. The only negative to a hostile takeover is the bad taste JNJ has from the Cordis takeover....

    • To FLSpindoctor:
      Are you quite certain that
      intelligent businessmen would never do an intelligent deal
      because of "feelings," assuming that they in fact have
      the feelings you attribute to them. I would have
      thought that people running corporations as large as JNJ
      and Amgen would act on rational bases and do what was
      economically sensible. You know otherwise?????

    • Nice Christmas present from Ralph yesterday.
      Maybe he is trying to save the 2% staff Christmas
      bonuses on the 4100 people.

      All kidding aside, it
      always amazes me where companies like J&J and Boeing can
      annouce such layoff uncertainty right around Christmas. A
      Chrismas present of anxiety? Trying to be "helpful" and
      prevent staff from spending? Or the simple fact that FY
      end occurs so close and by announcing in December
      that they can accrue expenses or tax savings in FY
      1998? Hmmmm.

    • Sorry, never. The two managements hate each other
      over the EPO deal. One suit already completed. And it
      is not over . . .

      Believe me, JNJ would love
      to get AMGN since their biotech research track
      record is pretty poor (Go to the stockholder meeting and
      ask how many discoveries PRI has had. Sales are
      probably still lower than costs over the last 10

      AMGN would rather sell to the devil or a white knight
      first than to JNJ.

    • Lets hope both CEO's surf this thread... or perhaps CNBC, that way it may be mentioned as "rumor" and give some support to JNJ.

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