My take is that the selling shareholders do not believe in the sustainabilty of the spreads. They were happy to sell at $24.75 few months ago. And are happy to sell again. I would use that $24.75 price they were willing to take as your benchmark. Why would they throw money away. They know the business better than anyone. And at that time the WTI/Brent spread was even much better than today. Was near the peak acutally. At a price per BPD capaicty, NTI is the most exensive of any refiner. CVRR being the 2nd most expensive. I would only buy NTI on hard dips. I wouldn't buy CVRR above $34 because i think just a matter of time before CVI does another secondary on that. You may be able to get it closer to 30-32. These CVRR and NTI are real dumpy refineries that if the logistics ever improved, you could see them loose almost all their profitability.
thanks CSCO. Glad i sold 75% of my holding at 31ish. Have some covered calls on the remaing, hope it doesn't drift to 24.75.
So CVI is a better buy than NTI and CVRR, at this price 51-52? especially if Icahn does a secondary and declares a special div.?