I think there's no real correlation now due to the CVRR offering happening now, and being a MLP CVRR isn't going to move in price like CVI (the parent) because of GROWTH opportunities. CVRR is paying out Capital as a tax benefit....it's not like a JNJ or CVX paying out dividends. Think of CVRR like (not "as") a Preferred Stock, if you see CVRR tank!....then CVI will sooner or later, but if CVI Goes up....CVRR may not go up much. realistically, at the div%/rate for CVRR this will probably trade up to $34-36, and back again to $30. Don't be greedy, 16% ROC/div rate is AWESOME!!! Getting a 20% stock apprc'tion on top is a bit greedy. wait til yeild is a need in the stock world, then buyers will step in to buy and hold. As for now the buy and sell will happen before and after the ROC dates
Sentiment: Strong Buy
CVRR is the subsidiary of CVI. Right now hedge funds and big investors only see CVRR as the cash cow for CVI. UAN, while producing, is not showing the kind of profit margins for CVI like CVRR is. Therefore the thought is CVRR will bear the profit taking for CVI. What the hedge funds and large institutional investors are NOT focusing on is the fact CVRR will hit its $5.50-$6.50 predicted cash distribution for the year for itself, CVRR. I think you will start to see a quickening of the price going up when its gets closer to the second quarter earnings period. Remember, CVRR management is going to be able to distribute a full quarter cash distribution unlike the first quarter because of the IPO period abbreviating the full quarterly distribution in the first quarter. If you are looking for quick profit taking this is not the time to be in CVRR. Remember also, that most institutional invertors want a full years' results before basing large investment strategies on, something CVRR does not yet have as a publicly traded MLP.
there is no logical reason. There is probably some short biased hedge fund blowing up with the market up a zillion days in row and is getting squeezed in CVI. Maybe they were short CVI and long CVRR. And are just having to blow out everything.
CVRR is the cash cow, as for Icahn....1st, he wants BOTH to Go up in price! 2nd, there's a new offering happening with CVI/CVRR and I think that's the primary reason why CVRR isn't moving. I think there's some 20mill shr being converted from CVI to CVRR if I read it correctly. Hedgies and Inst'tions aren't waiting....for full year either, these MLP are designed to create tax benefits and buying into one is a cash stream move, betting against these are not profitable. Inst'tions MIGHT buy it for yield. CVI is increasing on a few things and the Nat Gas story I think is the biggest reason. Now I might be wrong, but....? I've done my DD, and I'm long CVRR (bot on IPO), and my plan was to buy for yield...straight up. The parent CVI isn't going anywhere, so after 2yrs I will rec've 100% cost bqck through dividends (ROC) and to me that means 100% profit when I sell....Icahn ain't selling this, and because of that he will use this cash flow to lever other investments, the guy isn't stupid. Overall I think this will trade up and down infront and after the ROC record dating...why not, right? Buy it next month, sell it 4days after record date..= buy low/sell high and collect a dividend!
Sentiment: Strong Buy