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Cummins Inc. Message Board

  • sync2112 sync2112 Jul 25, 2011 10:34 AM Flag

    Hold(risk) vs Sell(reward)

    Do I have this backwards? Looks to be quite a risk to hold this through earnings. It always is. Last Q we were rewarded. This Q CAT had stellar earnings but the street called it a miss and did not like the forward guidance. Guidance that only 3 months ago said we would be killing it for the rest of the year. How did the street reward CAT? It stomped them by 7 bucks a share at the open.

    What are the thoughts here....anyone rolling the dice?

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    • Another reason I like CMI is that it is a major holding of Lazlo Byrini.

      I have followed Byrini for nearly 3 decades, going back to when he was a regular on Louis Reukeyser's (sp) Wall Street Week on PBS in the 1980s.

      He is an accurate and seasoned analyst.

      Anyway, he was interviewed recently and reiterated his "buy" rating on CMI, arguing that it had stable management, a strong international position, and the industrial sector is bright going forward.

    • CNH getting rewarded big time today ... up 11% on solid beat and raise ... CMI is next !

    • analysts have raised the estimates way past what cmi guided to last quarter. it will be more difficult to beat these now (if they do at all). i'm afraid cmi has been set up to fall

      btw, hasn't cmi been spending a good bit of money recently on new jobs, new facilities, etc.? if so, won't that impact earnings.

    • Ha!

      My comment to CMI:

      "Go ahead and make my day"

    • Sync: Yes, I do respect your caution, especially AFTER earnings report.

      However, just another point: Notice how this stock has bounced back on Friday and today with big dips ---that's a positive.

      • 1 Reply to RCWOOLSEY
      • RC....Good point. In the end though this doest have a connection to earnings. Its just day to day market sentiment. Today is the last day to get any protection from the report. Stop loss orders wont help us tommorow. We have to make our mind up today. I tool 35% off Friday and am tring to decide what to do with the rest. I still have a several k position that I would like not to get hit. With a buy in at 93 bucks and change it would have to fall a long way to ding me but hey...I want to keep what I have. Its just a crap shoot.

        A Clint said....Do ya feel lucky punk...well...do ya?

    • i was surprised how they punished CAT... but likeRC said...they missed a lil on their EPS...and then a comment of slowing China...still I agree with u...overdone. Ill probably hold overnight 100% but im not comfy doing it...cuz of the raise in EPS.

      • 2 Replies to waterguy981
      • Analysts have been very cautious going into earnings --its a trick to keep their jobs because a surprise to the upside looks good.

        Note: A few analysts upgraded AAPL just before earnings --not enough, because that stock beat by a considerable amount. Also, an upgrade just before earnings can mean a good earnings report is coming....\

        I take the upgrade as a plus, not negative.

      • Very bold water, Unlike CAT we are in the meat of this debt debate. To the upside if all goes well just a blowout I could see a trace up to 110 pps. On the downside if we miss like CAT did we could down draft 10 bucks..yes 10 bucks. Why...for starters CMI has much more volitility than CAT does. Far fewer shares outstanding will swing this way more thaen CAT did. Add to this if we get even more bad news for this debt crud it could make for the perfect storm to the downside. I have not yet fully decided what I will do but logic dictates to sell it all.

    • think we only got a token rise last qrt sync if i remember, went +4% but drifted lower .....the better gains came in the days after when it pushed on to 120

      why is case up 10% when baker hughes beat on the top and bottom line but is down on the day .....its just mad

 
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