I think 150 - 160 may be an underestimate. I believe current earnings estimates for the 3rd quarter are 15% to 20% below where the actual numbers will come in at. I also expect the company to raise full year guidance for this year and I also expect that to happen for next year as well. I am looking for 165 to 180 within the next 12 to 18 months.
In order for that to happen Europe has to turn around more than it has and the non China Asian countries need to step it up. The PE on this company is already pretty high and takes into account current 2014 estimates. We need real revenue growth. Can no longer expand margins by cutting costs. We ned to be able to spread the high overhead, primarily buildings and assembly line equipment over more units. That is why when the company is hitting on all cylinders the stock makes big jumps.
Someone below talked about natural gas engines. Unfortunately, they are still off a couple of years. In the last conference call management said that the truckers were just starting to buy them so that they can evaluate operations. I know they are building out LNG stations all over the country; however, a full network is still a couple years out. Once the evaluation period is complete we will see more purchases.
A few years down the road we will have seen a split or this stock will be part of the new fad where we see it over $200/share. Even after this run market cap is just under $25 billion, which in today's inflated dollars is really not that large. In a big run up like the 1982 - 2000 variety, 5 times what it is now would be conservative. Hang on to your shares.
Looking at charts is the worst thing you can do without also looking at what causes the stock to move. Trying to predict the future from the most recent past is futility and never works. Listen to the webcasts as the Management tells you what is going to happen based on current ordering, etc. In short last Spring's chart is worthless!! CMI gives a lot of useful info and has a great handle on things. Even though revenues have not been great lately, they have not sacrificed profitability as indicated by their high margins. They are also using capital efficiently by buying back many of the service centers, which is gold mine business.