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ORIX Corporation Message Board

  • jsbradley123 jsbradley123 Jan 15, 2008 12:36 PM Flag

    Does anyone follow this stock?

    I am having trouble determining whether this stock was way overvalued 12 to 18 months ago or if its way undervalued now. Nothing substantial has happened in the past 12 months to justify a 50% price drop in Orix stock. The fundamentals still look strong. If earnings (in Yen) remain on track for their 2008 guidance, I think there is substantial upside from current prices. Keep in mind that Yen is strengthening against the dollar so even if earnings (in Yen) are flat versus 2007, they will be up when you factor in yen to dollar conversion. Projected 2008 earnings 202,500,000,000 yen) based on the current yen-dollar conversion (107:1) would be $1,892,500,000 which is $20.61 per share. Based on today's price of $71, that's a ridiculously low P/E of 3.44. Even if you assume earnings (in yen) fall a whopping 10% from 2007 to 177,000,000,000 yen, based on the current yen-dollar conversion rate, that would equate to EPS of $18 per share which is a P/E of 3.94 based on today's price. Am I missing something here? No way this thing is trading that low.

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