Why is the avg. analyst estimate $1.44 for this year.....
....and $1.39 for next year. WAKE UP, analysts! Do you REALLY expect GCI's earnings to be less in 2010 than 2009?! This is the ONLY reason GCI's stock is still as depressed as it is. If analysts were at $2.00, or $2.50 (as I expect) in EPS for 2010, the stock would be at $12-15, right now! What are these guys WAITING for?
Biggest reason I can find for quite conservative earnings forecasts is the concern with banks and financial institutions. Good many businesses failing and loans going bad or Chapter 11s. We've had about 80 bank failures, but some of the skilled analysts believe the number will be in the 250-300 range. I do not know, but that many failures would not do the recovery any good. It could delay what appears to be going on now. Failures of commercial loans is not something that will boost our recovery. I certainly hope they have missed on this kind of forecast JMHO>
By reading the entire transcripts from the lastest earning conference call, it seems to me that the 2010 low estimate coming from the management based on the assumption that the economy is not recoverying because they are not sure which letter shape such as V, U, L or W represents the actual condition of the economy next year (see bottom on Page 6 of the transcripts). I think that is wise for them to predict this way, so there will be no downside surprise.
As far for the debt concern I had before, the earliest maturing date of the debt/notes is about two years from now (latter half of 2011). In this case, I don't think they will issue new shares any time soon, not during the remainder of this year. Plus, they will generate cash from operation and the sale of non-core assests (small amounts, but still cash) and the future equaty sale may not be huge as we thought if needed.
After chewing the transcripts word by word, my feeling tell me that the management is doing an excellent job and I feel even better now since I've bought back my 1/3 GCI during last two days.