I dont know why they put the Alzheimers trial first, but guess the funding from the US may have had a bearing, and the fact Bush and Masters are already involved in the huge CSIRO AIBL imaging study.
Regarding the no partnership yet, I cant imagine they havnt had any offers, but they are probably holding out for what it is worth. That has got to be a good thing for us shareholders.
Once the results start flowing fron the 6month Huntingtons trial maybe a partner will not be needed.
Kadaicher, yes, the imaging study is important in making the pharma deal and HD study is to get some sales for PBT2 before Prana can do it in AD indication. However HD study will also support pharma deal.
To me it is difficult to understand why Prana has not yet got a big pharma partner. If it will get it before next quarter, the value of imaging study will remain, because I would think that only then the world will know how the the brain looks like when it has less Abeta and also works better than before PBT2 treatment.
Pivalde, thanks for that research. Huntingtons has the potential to be a blockbuster in its own right. I wish the trial would start even sooner, but the Alzheimers imaging trial which will start next quarter, is the one more likely to bring in a pharma with a favourable deal. Once they have demonstrated PBT2 efficacy another way (that will make 4, 5 if you count the PBT1 trial) I think we will see a pharma come on board, maybe even before. That trial start will be a big positive for Prana. A pharma deal could happen any time from here.
Have you seen any details on the trials?
To find something positive in this announcement it may be the income side by PBT2 which will replace Tetrabenazine and if it is today a 250M drug it may be that PBT2 is worth of much more than 750M - 1B $. Some 10% of the users of Tetrabenazine stop taking it and an other 10% will get serious side effects. Tetrabenazine is also only a symptomatic drug. So if PBT2 is able to stop degeneration of neural tissue and also help in the subjective symptoms it may be something what the patients will willingly take.
If there is 100.000 patients in the world so it looks like they need to pay this 250M. So per one patient the sales is 2500 per year.
PBT will cost perhaps some 25.000 per year or more. So if the same amount of the HD patients would use PBT2 as there are those using Tetrabenazine so the sales of PBT2 would be 2.5 B.
Sorry, I only now noticed that HD study will be started only in 4th quarter this year. So the speeding will be not so much at all, perhaps some 0-3 months all together by shorting the treatment time by 6 months. So is this announcement again a way how to tell bad news in a positive way? It looks to me now that the first quarter of 2013 is the earliest to get these HD study results as was announced earlier.
Prana promised HD study results in the I quarter of 2013 when the treatment time was 1 year. Now with this new study plan it could be that we will have the results in the third quarter of 2012 (1/2 y earlier). But if they will really speed up everything and get the study started let us say by August we could get the results much sooner. I would think that Prana by informing that they are now speeding up this HD study will now do everything to get the results as soon as possible. To get started is usually the slowest phase with all formal issues. To recrute 100 patients into the study in 3 months is not impossible, could be even sooner when there will be many centers recruting. To get the 3 month follow-ups during the next 3 months and so the 6 month follow-ups could be ready in 7-9 months and and the data analyses in 9-11 months from the start. So we could have the results as soon as in the summer 2012 !!!
Everthing depends on what kind of tests are included in the study. When there is the separate image study, may be imaging is not so important in this study, perhaps only a small subgroup will get imaging. Motoric testing is simple but psychologic testing perhaps more time consuming to get done.
I am speculating with this because they made this speeding announcement but did not give any details. Why to inform us now, when so many things are open that they can only give starting time to be second half of 2011. So it looks that many things are still open but with only 6 month follow-up there will some speeding to get results as early as possible. Every month is now very important and Prana management has noticed it, not only us investors!
Thanks for posting the link. This press release does not appear to contain any new information, but it at least consolidates various pieces of information that have previously been disclosed.
Of course, a year ago they issued a press release laying out their plan for PBT2 in 2010, none of which actually happened. So, as with last year's plan, I don't count the announcement of this year's plan as "news". When they announce that they're enrolling patients, I will count that as news. Or when they announce a source of funding for the Huntington's trial, I'll count that as news.
I get the feeling they are expecting a little more than the cognition improvment.
["It's a limited study, in that we used the same drug dose on all the animals as opposed to comparing different doses, but fairly convincing," Massa concluded. "Together, the in vitro and in vivo results suggest that Clioquinol has an effect of decreasing the symptoms of Huntington's, its pathology, and perhaps even the actual production of the toxic protein." ]
Regardless of the schedule, the key is that Prana plans to go forward with PBT2 clinical trials, the p2b concurrently. As previously posted, this makes the most sense financially to a private venture firm or big pharma entering a partnership. So are talks going on with other parties?