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Prana Biotechnology Limited Message Board

  • goutah3006 goutah3006 Jan 1, 2012 6:29 PM Flag

    Next Milestone

    While I won't make predictions about 2012, I'll set the next milestones we should look for, along with deadlines for these milestones.

    Milestone #1: An announcement that dosing has begun for patients enrolled in the AD imaging study.

    Deadline for Milestone #1: 31 March 2012

    Milestone #2: An announcement that patient enrollment has begun in the HD Phase IIa trial.

    Deadline for Milestone #2: 31 March 2012

    We all know that Prana has a reputation for repeatedly making promises, then failing to deliver on those promises. That's one of the reasons the share price remains low. The surprise announcement (at least it was a surprise to me) that patient enrollment for the imaging study had begun in December was a pleasing deviation from this pattern of behavior, albeit a late one (enrollment was first promised by 30 September, then by 30 November). We as shareholders need to keep pressure on management to fulfill tie promises it has made. The deadline for the beginning of patient enrollment in the HD trial (31 December) is now in the past, so I'm giving them until 31 March. Am I not generous?

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    • unfortunately the company market cap is too low, stock price is too low. The company may go broke before it is able to convince investors & possible partners that it has something of value to offer. Seen this before - companies on the cusp of a new discovery going bankrupt, only to have their patents/technologies acquired for pennies on the dollar. What's to prevent that from happening here ?

      • 2 Replies to gswkool
      • You make a good point, gsw. I've occasionally pointed out that one possible future for Prana (of the company's many possible futures) is liquidation, where the company runs out of money and is unable to raise more, and ends up shutting down the business and selling the patents and other intellectual property for a pittance.

        I get excoriated whenever I mention that this is a possibility. But anyone who doesn't keep his eyes open to all possible outcomes shouldn't be speculating in early-stage biotech companies (or any other kind of company, for that matter).

        Prana clearly does not have enough cash to complete the HD and AD Phase IIa trials that are currently planned. I don't know where the money will come from, but I haven't been particularly impressed with Mr. Kempler's showmanship. Good showmanship is essential for a company like this, in order to keep the share price pumped up enough to make it possible to raise the necessary amount of cash.

        Kadaicher used to insist that a Big Pharma partnership was imminent. He may still be saying that, for all I know. But if a Big Pharma company were interested in a partnership, we would have had a partnership by now. I think that Big Pharma is waiting for the outcome of either or both of the Phase IIa trials.

      • The trial is already ongoing. It is really too late to cut off their finance. The have a shelf selling at drip feed. Everything is going along nicely. They are getting some support from the Australian govt. They are getting support from the Vicorian state government in the form of the poweful research engine of the Mental Health Research Institute(MHRI). They can run on very low overheads if neeed.
        Bankrupt, no I dont think in this lifetime. The imaging trial cost is only $10m. The Huntingtons trial they are about to start, I hope, must be very basic with 100 patients over 6 months, at a cost of $2m in Aus and USA. I think they are getting some operational support from the HDSA.
        This Alzheimer's imaging trial that is currently running will very likely stop or reverse Alzheimer's. They have done it before, but this time there will be a full set of biomarker evidence from the various, PET scans, MRI's, blood tests to go with the cognition testing, a bigger sample, and more expertise on what to look for in the images. It will be very hard to ignore any results they see.
        My tip is the CSIRO(Aust Govt) picks it up and runs a pivitol trial for approval with their 900 paients they have on the AIBL study, with no pharma's involved.
        FYI, CSIRO is about the biggest research organization in the world. They have come up with things from the nuclear spectrometer, WiFi to an automatic sheep shearing machine. Currently working on making lower grades of iron ore commercial. They recently won a patent case on WiFi so I guess are cashed up. They have been working on the longitudinal AIBL study since 2004 with Prana's co founder Ashley Bush as co director. I think most of the funding came from the Govt of Western Australia for the AIBL. Prof Martins from UWA(Where Masters did his pioneering Alzheimer's work)is in charge of the study.
        The director of the MHRI is Prana co founder and Alzheimers research pioneer Colin Masters.
        AIBL are waiting for a genuine disease modifying drug to apply their discoveries from the AIBL study and I think, Prana, through this trial, will give it to them.
        I dont imagine Prana's connections in there will help and they will need to have the best prospect, but hey, they have already reversed Alzheimer's. Not too many can say that. Everything about the AIBL using PBT2 is just conjecture and I have seen nothing to indicate that may be the case.

    • Nice Goutah. Spectacular good news is that the trial that is going to stop alzheimer's has started and you are predictably trying to turn it into a negative.
      Then you are trying to convince longs that your bashing is really to help us, while you and your buddies try to drive the price of our investment down.
      You are as devious a basher as I have come across and I have seen plenty.
      So let me get this straight, you the guy who keeps telling us you have only a very small portion of your investments in Pran, have set your own deadlines(there were none set by Kempler)and intend to bash into the new year if your deadlines are not met. wow.

    • Generous? Silly and redundant

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