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Prana Biotechnology Limited Message Board

  • cheddaman45 cheddaman45 Feb 4, 2013 1:34 PM Flag

    Bought in today

    Might have jumped the gun and bought a little too early since data isn't due until the 2nd half of the year. This company looks way undervalued with only a $66m mc. Hopefully the volume picks up soon.

    GLTA

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    • Ya ain't too early... some of us have been in since 2008 (me) or earlier. While, there have been numerous opportunities to accumulate and profit, this is essentially a medium term play here on out. I was able to sell almost all at $4.10, thanks to a report of brave mice that responded to PBT2 in a university lab, and bought right back in below $1.50 within a few months. Since I play a poor short game, this seems to work. And I've been accumulating ever since on weakness.
      At this point a partnership or shallower licensing deal (e.g. only Asia or EU) could be signed any day. IMO, these single digit values may be a distant memory within 2 years.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • IMHO: I think Prana as retirement stock, worst case scenario trail failed, go back to drawing board for some time and come back next year or so; which, after reading NY science academy paper one can tell is very unlikely, if trial passed or got anything near 80% or above on marks-sheet, stock will move vertically but to a smaller point.

      At this junction there are few possibilities that I can think of.

      1. Offer and acceptance, Stock price will be same as offer, "morning after"
      2. Play in big pool, Prana will get it approved by FDA itself and will market drug, unlikely but if they pull this off, Prana will be a billion $$ company in next 3-5 years. I'll consider early retirement.
      3. Joint venture with big boys, I'll wait for the regular retirement age but will retire happy.

      So cheddaman45 welcome abroad on a train of 99% Pumpers, Humpers and people living in "Happy place"

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Nice to see. I too feel a little early, but the potential for an announcement that will disruptively change the valuation has me willing to get in and wait it out. I consider that wallstreet looks about six months out for smart money to begin stepping in to quietly place a position on an outcome if their research suggests a good probability for high returns. I would think that six month count-down to any public disclosures of trial results could begin as early as the end of March and worst case as late as 3rd quarter.

      But surely the metals theory has enjoyed a bittersweet renewal of interest since the failure of recent amyloid beta plaque reducting meds of BAPI and SOLA. Bitter due to an unjustified guilty by association perception of PBT2 with other failures (a concern the Prana has tried hard to dispel), and sweet for those who realize those failures lend added support to the metals theory.

      One would think that if it is truly working as anticipated and hoped that participants and study partners might know something by the time this count-down begins, if not already. With a such a small trial size, and the AD trial location being in Australia only, that is not necessarily going to translate into a noticeable share price move, but most folks keep an eye on both exchanges.

      I wonder how many of those few (100 AD & 60 HD, I think, plus study partners) trial participants/study partners are both internet savy and self-directed investors in individual equities. From my scouring of AD & HD forums, I now question if there would register a noticeable spike if it was a panacea for all of their ills.

    • Good for you. I've been following this stock for about 15 months -- it has a MB better than most biotechs, so enjoy reading. As you can see, a lot of the science behind PRAN's drugs can be found in the public domain (well, if you have full-text databases). This is not a smoke and mirrors biotech.

 
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