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Prana Biotechnology Limited Message Board

  • rt13101310 rt13101310 Apr 21, 2013 4:18 PM Flag

    PRAN share price RISK

    Talk of an 80-90% drop in PRAN shares due to failure of current drug trials is excessive. COMPLETE failure in both trials would give you $1.10 to $1.40 and perhaps $0.70 long term in my opinion. The logic....PRAN has NOT had an extreme runup, PRAN has another drug candidate in the background, PRAN has few large holders, PRAN has remaining cash and an experienced staff.

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    • In my opinion, a complete failure of both trials would be tantamount to an admission that Prana's MPAC hypothesis is either invalid or so poorly understood by Prana's own scientists that they were unable to design a trial that would effectively test the hypothesis. The viability of Prana's entire IP portfolio would be thrown into serious doubt. Prana's share price would likely plummet, making the company unable to raise enough cash for a clinical trial of PBT434 without hyper-dilution, which in turn would drive the share price down further.

      Prana has been actively promoting the MPAC hypothesis as a big breakthrough, which it may well be. A complete failure of both trials would, in my view, likely spell death for the company in one form or another. An ambiguous result for both trials would probably not kill the company, but would make it very difficult for the company to raise any more cash. They've barely been able to raise enough cash to finance the two current relatively inexpensive trials, despite the reasonably impressive results of the first Phase IIa trial of PBT2.

      I hope we have spectacular results for both trials. But I've prepared myself mentally for all possible scenarios, including complete failure of both trials. That's the risk one takes when one speculates in early-stage biotech.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • The PD drug would give it some value, along with its other prospects, but that's a long way off. If the AD and HD trials failed, the 'metals theory' would be in doubt and need a careful rethink. In my opinion, that would leave PRAN with little near-term value to investors. I suspect you would see 0.70 sooner rather than later, and maybe less than that.

      • 3 Replies to zhidao90
      • why would you stay?

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • The difficult investment scenario to handle would be statistically weak (or ambiguous) results from the HD trial. This would likely precipitate a pps drop back at least to 1.20 or so, where we were before the HD trial was publically being considered. Would that be a buying opportunity, based on prior positive results in the AD human trial results and several promising animal studies?

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Remembering of course PBT2 has already demonstrated cognition gains over a rising placebo in just 12 weeks. This IMAGINE Alzheimer's trial is not a stab in the dark. It is a trial to confirm what they have already seen in a previous clinical trial. That is a very rare situation in neurodegeneration trials.

        Now we get a powerful biomarker package to go with the original results. What will those biomarkers be is the question no one knows.

        The Reach2 of course is a first trial against Huntingtons. It could go either way, but there are good signs there for a successful outcome.

        Of course there is a risk if things go wrong. That is biotech investing. 1000%+++ profits, but do your homework on the science behind the drug and make your decisions on the back of your own research. This board is a great resource, and even though Yahoo prevents links now, just google a complete sentence from an interesting piece and it will usually put you right on to the research piece quoted.

        There is little in investing to compare with a biotech blasting off, bringing home a rapid 10 bagger, and nothing quite so gut wrenching as a failure, for investors, patients and docs with a decade or more of their life invested.

        The big positive here is the fact we have already seen a clear efficacy signal in a previous human clinical trial in the big one, Alzheimer's. That is what I call risk mitigation.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
PRAN
1.970.00(0.00%)Oct 20 3:59 PMEDT

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