What do you mean by "press on PBT434 will be in before the HD results in Oct."? What news are you anticipating?
The only thing regarding PBT434 that would have a major effect on the share price is a clinical trial outcome, and no clinical trials have been done on PBT434. Perhaps Prana will begin a Phase I trial at some point, but that won't be "news" because everyone is expecting that Prana will begin a Phase I of PBT434 at some point.
The only meaningful long-term driver of share price will be clinical trial outcomes, because in the end, that's all that really counts.
People have long been predicting that this or that external event will drive the share price up a lot before we get clinical results. Whether it be a deal with Big Pharma, further grants from private foundations, more mouse studies, or whatever. But Prana has remained in the $2 ballpark for eons.
There's nothing wrong with the stock being in the $2 ballpark while we await results, because it enables people to buy more shares than they could buy if the price were $4 or $6. I myself, having pretty much accumulated as many shares as I intend to, don't care what the share price does between now and the announcement of clinical results.
I dont agree 100% with 434 not adding value on entry to trials. I depends if both Reasc2HD and IMAGINE validate the science over multiple indications. If that is done, there will be some excitement over the entry of 434 into the clinic.
There has been a steady rise from the 1.40 position to the current levels. May it continue as trial results close in. Prana is still way undervalued in my opinion, considering the almost sure thing they have in Alzheimer´s.
All things being equal I would prefer everyone from this day forward pay 8$ per share versus $2 and some change.
I would prefer looking in the rearview mirror with confirmation that I made a good investment choice by purchasing an undervalued stock and with options daily to lock in some profits, diversify, pay things off, etc..
Just because your investment timeline is good with the trial results does not mean that all shareholders are in that boat, or that situations might arise where you might want, or need to sell your stock. There is never a scenario I can think of where I desire a stock I hold to remain down or flat for any period of time.
I would also prefer that any future dilution could potentially be LESS dilutive because the stock is now at $8 per share versus $2, and the company could offer 1/4 as many shares to achieve the same financial endpoint as having a $2 stock, so the company also should not ever be content with a $2 stock price if there are ways to enhance the value of the shares.
A $2 per share dilution on a stock that is Undervalued to it's peers hurts the shareholder's immensely as we have seen the company market cap grow on the shoulder's of the existing shareholders. At a higher shareprice the dilution would be less and the shareholder's might actually share in the growth in the form of a higher price per share from their initial investment, even in the face of dilution.
For these reasons it is NOT ok for the shareprice to languish in the $2 range indefinitely, or even until trial results if there are things in management's playbook that will enhance shareholder value. This is my general investment opinion and we all look for a management team that is willing to look for multiple and smart ways to enhance sharehofder value, company survival (going concern), and growth, and most importantly to value and the reward shareholders not just themselves.
I agree with you on the PBT434 and also feel the sideways (and down today) trading activity is related to the offering not being closed yet.. I always wondered if the initial grant applied to a specific time period - like a two year grant. Their initial $200,000 grant from MJFF was part of the 2011 Pipeline program. In August it will be the two year anniversary. I have seen follow-on grants come in at much higher dollar amounts. So a larger amount follow-on grant in combination with progress along the development pipeline toward human testing can only be a good thing.