If Prana has a cure for Alzheimer's, how high could the stock go? $60 target.
If the Phase 2 trial shows results, PRAN will be a 2 Billion Dollar Market cap overnight. They will be the first to tackle Huntington's, and take us a major step forward in Alzheimer's. There is significant money to be made here.
If ... wishing could make it so. Looks like annual PRAN pump and dump has run its course. I'm as interested as anyone in seeing the clinical trial data -- but make no mistake, PRAN is a high-risk gamble.
Here, let me help you. When you talk about PRAN being "high risk" that may be true but you accidently forgot to talk about the "high reward" part. Anyway, I like to gamble, especially when the odds are on my side predicting a high expected value for the bet.
As a precaution, the key words are "shows results". I agree with your valuation if the results are strong and well beyond just statistical significance for the primary endpoints. I have no doubt with extant data and the expected extention participation that the drug does not pose safety obstacles to approval.
Many ph2 AD trials have shown limited statistical success, including the small Prana ph2a. Many have failed in phase 3 trials. So, IMO a strong news-headline performance, which may indeed be in the cards, would value PRAN as if the drug were ready for the prime time NDA prior to ph3 - your $2B cap overnight (which would likely be a night in late March 2014 following the after-hours PR). Either way, I'll be up that night.
To clarify, the PRAN ph2a showed statistically clear evidence of improvement in Executive Function after 12 weeks. But valuation languished at under $40M until the follow-up trials were set to begin.
The point is, many consider in their speculative investments that ph2 trial results can be misleading, and drugs go on to fail in ph3. Prana has more basis for efficacy than the previous trial, yet the price languished at 1.2-1.6 for 3 years. This has permitted myself and countless others to accumulate PRAN at a very low market cap over those years. The current trials however are game-changers.
Agreed, I did a lot of searching last night for stocks with upcoming catalysts through 2014. The 2 I've selected are PRAN and ATHX as the 2 with the largest potential, among several other factors I use to narrow my search. Just funded my trade account this morning, now have to wait the dreaded 3 day hold. Hopefully (for me) it pulls back a little more and doesn't rocket away. My perma-long stock is IMUC. There will be an article coming out today from Seeking Alpha on them. I don't care for SA too much, but have a lot of respect for the author (Joe Springer). Check it out, you won't regret it. GLTY
There are many others. Most notable IMO is NVIV with a $300M cap, trading above 4, and not yet having conducted a ph1 (1Q14). Yet the pre-clinicals are strong, the market is huge, and the approach is novel. . . . sounds like PRAN, but do your own DD. There are others out there, that is my only point.