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Prana Biotechnology Limited Message Board

  • davidssaville davidssaville Aug 25, 2013 8:55 AM Flag

    From Popn'Top board downunder

    Yep the Climb continues as expected. With PBT (.57 time of article) you have a confluence of factors contributing to this awesome run over the past few weeks.

    There is a clear technical break out following a 2 year basing/accumulation pattern on the weekly chart.

    What we are also seeing here is the reluctance of holders to sell, no matter how strong the gains have been over the past few weeks they will absolutely pale in comparison to what this stock will do if the HD trial results due in a couple of months are positive.
    Those trial results will be a genuine lock out type of event, as it will be almost impossible to get a hold of PBT stock in that scenario.

    With Alzheimers results to follow in March, you have a relatively short period of time to wait and 2 potential lock out type events on the horizon.
    What this creates is the perfect storm where existing holders are terrified of selling out too early knowing that recent gains are only the tip of the iceberg if the trial results are positive. And you have new entrants buying in anticipation of the results realising the potential of immense gains if the results are positive.

    So why would you sell? Onwards and upwards!

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Good post. The point is the run so far is just pennies compared to how much we are going to make by holding!! THIS is going to be a life changing event, financially speaking, for the longs!!!!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to sudnwealth
      • From Skint downunder:
        Aksier, I get the market sentiment, but from here on in any rises will be based on the worth of PBT2 as an Alzheimer's asset. As such I guess it could continue revaluation past $400m, or that is what investors in the US are saying.
        I don't think there is an equal company to value PRAN against in the US, with positive Alzheimer's P2 cognition results in hand running a confirming trial.

        A similar positioned co may be Cytokinetics. They combined several 21 day trials with positive trends to arrive at a stat sig result in ALS, a rare disease. They are also running a longer 12 week phase2 now and recently had to fess up to mixing doses and 58 drug arm patients were administered placebo by mistake.(I would have put a smiley face there but don't want to tempt fate) They are running another phase2 for a heart failure drug. They have no drugs on the market and burn about $40m a year. Market cap $336m
        http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CYTK

        Prana is in a much higher profile area, with Obama recently pushing an Alzheimer's initiative, and the FDA indicating it is an urgent need and willing to make concessions for rapid approval. The AD market is far bigger than anything CYTK is going after. Prana's trial results to date have been stronger with stat sig exec function results from a single trial with a very convincing confirming biomarker. Currently at least, Prana has a much leaner burn rate.

        PBT2 has been named by US comentator as an important drug in the race for a DM Alzheimer's treatment.

        $400m is not a crazy target for Prana's market cap over the next month, and I think it is worth more than that without the HD indication, but as you say, sentiment will have an effect, but that could work both ways.

        I am tipping a $400m plus market cap going into HD results, regardless of those results, increasing to 6 to 700m prior to AD results, with a dip in there if HD fails. With strong HD results $1b market cap going into Alzheimer's results.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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