I post infrequently. Any balance offered to traders/investors that hints at cautious forward momentum is usually met with derision, basing, etc. Not good gentlemen/ladies; we need to keep our heads on straight and assess accordingly. I am long turn bullish on PRAN but withdrew last Friday for pragmatic reasons (pps 24 x book, etc.). Spotting disease early, super early, seems to be essential for any marginally successful treatment. Potential her, of course, but lets follow the trend -- up on expectations, pull back, settled, then, if further cause for spiral upward, get on board again early. But simply buttress each and everyone's comments to the upside? Not a sound basis for decision making.
Some of us are neither traders nor investors in Prana. I myself am a long-term speculator in Prana. A trader is someone who thinks he can profit from buying and selling based on short-term price fluctuations (good luck with that). An investor is someone who buys and holds a stock for a considerable length of time and who bases his buy and sell decisions on the disparity or lack of disparity between his estimate of a company's fundamental value as a business and the current market capitalization of that company. Because Prana's value as a business is currently indeterminate, it's not really possible to be an investor in Prana right now. A long-term speculator, by contrast, attempts to predict the future value of the business and buys and holds the stock if he thinks that its current market cap is way below the likely long-term future value of the company. The problem with this approach is that the future is largely unpredictable. So the speculator has to deal in probabilities. In the case of early-stage biotech, such probabilities are difficult to estimate. My thesis for owning Prana is that its price-to-excitement ratio is high, i.e. that the price does not reflect the exciting nature of the company's science. But excitement is no guarantee of success. Ergo, I fully acknowledge the risk that my Prana holdings may eventually end up being worthless.
Until the uninformed day-trading bashers started showing up on this board, this message board's overwhelming consensus (in which I still do not share) is that Prana is a sure thing, a slam dunk, a can't lose proposition, etc. I occasionally get lambasted for disagreeing with this consensus, but this doesn't bother me because I'm accustomed to shunning groupthink.
I expect to get some thumbs-up from shorts who mistake this post for "soft bashing", and some thumbs-down from longs who mistake this post for "soft bashing".
Thanks for a well-though out post. My sentiments exactly. It would be nice but unrealistic to expect that the posts on this board would be tempered and well-balanced. If you like this stock and post accordingly, you're okay; if not, you're a "basher". As I said earlier, PBT may help in very early stage of disease, maybe, but getting overexcited about eventual efficacy not warranted now. We haven't even approached end-trail completion on major aspect of disease prevention. Will be looking for opportunity to further evaluate and appreciate thoughtful comments.
Some of Jakebanners other soft bashing...
“Short term, starting this coming Monday, some of the euphoria will be tamped down.”
“Like getting a haircut”
“Any thoughts on company funding to stay afloat?”
“It's either "all normal and natural" or irrational exuberance.”
“look out! MM's could pull a fast one, as usual, but - hey - goes with the territory.”
“I go in PRAN a little over $2 and am holding.”
you still holding Jake
basing your valuation of a start up biotech waiting a binary outcome on the "pps to book ratio", is perhaps the dumbest comment I have ever heard on any message board...no really the dumbest...and that comes from 20 years of reading these boards...no really...you are officially the (wait for it, wait for it...)
the hero of the stupid...
look jake, if the drug is successful, which I and many others believe based on all data to date...this company is going to become a full fledged pharmaceutical company barring buy out...
Tell you what, I am just starting to let my peers know and soon a few other players will be in on the action to pick up shares. Likely they will be $10,000 investments per pop. Plan on it and if you can turn a buck so be it.
Where is the stock price headed? Oh, northward.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
reasonable points. I would simply say that this board has had lots of good posts on the science of PBT2 etc, and in the final analysis, that is what will make or break the price in the near future.