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Prana Biotechnology Limited Message Board

  • rt13101310 rt13101310 Oct 14, 2013 1:14 PM Flag

    PRAN $3.89, an opinion

    Here's what I think will happen. (see "a long winter" for my last opinion which so far has held.) PRAN will trade on low volume in this range. Several weeks from now buyers positioning for the HD results will push the stock higher. Notice how ANY significant buying can move the price. I expect no big deal with the HD results, perhaps disappointment to local bulls expecting more. Then, in March, the AD results will either be friendly or wildly constructive. Prior to AD results PRAN will trade near $5. After, double digits.
    Free advice (you get what you pay for): Depending on YOUR PRAN from the long dips for a position....think about owning some CALLS for after the AD not protect a position buy puts.

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    • Anything is possible. One possible scenario, which nobody has yet considered, is a scenario in which the HD results are extremely impressive and the AD results are only marginally impressive. I'm not saying that this will be the case, of course, and I no longer spend much time thinking about such things. I'm just saying that people should be prepared for the unexpected.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 2 Replies to goutah3006
      • Yes Sir, I agree! I think Glaucoma!!

        Mitochondria with reduced membrane potential are prevented from re-fusing to the mitochondrial network by different mechanisms. One of these mechanisms is inhibition of mitochondrial fusion by ΔΨm-dependent proteolytic cleavage of OPA1L isoforms. Single mitochondria that don’t fuse anymore are subsequently targeted to mitochondrial autophagy and in line with this Opa1 mutant mice show increased autophagy in the optic nerve. Conversely, it has been shown that during starvation, mitochondria elongate and are spared from autophagy. Targeting of mitochondria with reduced membrane potential to autophagosomes is accomplished by the PINK1/Parkin pathway, which is associated with familial Parkinsonism

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • Expecting the unexpected is good advice for any investor.

    • Rt a few years back a mainstream stock commentator featured a segment on Prana and the price took off like a freight train. The science of Prana is entering the mainstream in science circles, but not at all in investor circles yet. Prana needs a catalyst to bring the huge potential to the attention of investors. I guess to an investor not familiar with the science PBT2 is just another AD development drug.
      If PBT2 can give us a decent cognition signal in the prodromal patients I think it will go crazy. The reason I say that is because of the big shift into prevention trials by big pharma. They want to be able to sell a drug a decade before any symptoms are seen, and if a drug emerges from left field that can reverse normal age related memory loss, then those prevention drugs will be a non event, and there are big bucks being pumped into those efforts right now. Merck is also about to head to a prevention trial with their BACE inhibitor, even before phase 2 results from their phase 2 in mild patients. The stakes are very big.
      Now Prof Adlard has been doing extra research with PBT2 in normal age related memory loss mouse models and I heard Prof Cherny spill the beans on it at the NYAS metals symposium. Have a look at it again if you don't believe me. The research is done and was good, Cherny mentioned life extension also. I think it is waiting on publication. That could be the catalyst, and a wake up call to big pharma who are possibly all charging down the wrong path again. It could blow right past your $5 depending when that paper emerges.
      It will be big news like the recent mouse "breakthrough" results from Britain, with the important difference human trial verification could just be several weeks away, not a decade and a half.
      As Frobinso says, there could be something about PBT434 progress also. Prof Barnham recieved a grant for research on excitotoxicity and PBT2 about the same time as Prof Adlard. Maybe there will be some excitement before trial results yet.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 3 Replies to kadaicher1
      • Kadai...speaking of Kevin Barnham, coinventor of PBT2....I just found this interesting tidbit yesterday...

        University enters agreement with US start-up to develop therapy for Parkinson’s disease

        sounds like similar MOA of PBT434, but several 2-3 years behind...

        Friday, October 11, 2013

        The University of Melbourne has entered an agreement with US start-up company Procypra Therapeutics LLC to develop a class of drugs for treating neurological diseases like Parkinson’s disease.

        A cross-disciplinary team of researchers led by Dr Paul Donnelly (School of Chemistry and Bio21 Institute), Associate Professor Kevin Barnham (Bio21 Institute, Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health and the Department of Pharmacology) and Associate Professor Anthony White (Department of Pathology) has found that a class of synthetic compounds called copper bis (thiosemicarbazones) can potentially treat Parkinson’s disease and other neurodegenerative diseases, such as Motor Neuron Disease.

        Professor Frances Separovic, Head of the School of Chemistry at the University of Melbourne, welcomed the agreement and Procypra adopting the University’s multidisciplinary approach to develop a treatment for the disease.

        “This agreement reflects the desire for innovative research at The University of Melbourne to be translated into impact and recognises the importance of working with academic collaborators, like the Florey Institute of Neuroscience and Mental Health and industry partners to achieve this goal,” she said.

        Procypra is a US start-up established by Collaborative Medicinal Development LLC (CMD), a pharmaceutical development vehicle under the umbrella of US-based Cthulhu Ventures LLC. The company anticipates that the first in-human clinical trials will begin within three years. The University will receive royalty payments form the sale of products by Procypra under the agreement

      • Thanks, Kad. I don't doubt the future could be huge. Are we held back by the fact of an ADR? Or is it that INVESTORS FEAR FAILURE. I see small cap junk trading at four times our cap (today's example CDNO, now trading below our cap.) When I bought PRAN (many many separate orders) I had NO INTENTION of holding for results. My goal was to trade out in the $4-$5 area. Now I may keep forever (inertia??).
        I have always wondered about the 36.5M share day in March 2011. What did that mean?

      • Music to my eyes!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I see a short term jump on news (before Nov 30) to bring the share price to 5.11. I also see large hidden accumulation at that stage since MM can pull shares from treasury.
      I am Bias and want a Merry Merry Christmas : )

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Thanks RT - one question. Prana has stated their grant work that was targeted for the calendar year 2013 is completed. Now granted it may be simply a slogan that there is actually a race to the cure. If that phrase were worth it's salt there would be potential for a grant anytime. In either case a follow-on grant taking PBT434 into phase I should be in the works since they met all their milestones in this milestone-based program.

      If a grant does occur to fund PBT434 into a Phase I trial, how do you see this impacting the shareprice levels? It would be a 2nd pipeline drug heading to human trials, that significantly alters Prana's risk profile, not to mention the $4 Billion dollar market I am always make absolutely sure that I mention :-)

      • 3 Replies to frobinso1
      • By the way - I am a huge Michael J. Fox fine. I do believe there is a race to the cure, and I fdo think news like this could come at any time. So I don't want to sound like a complete skeptic. I also work w/accountants and finance folks and temper my expectations here because even though the administrators of our country can't seem to work off a budget, they do exist in the real world and I have gone through the MJFF financial reports and I know they are limited to working from a budget, like I so wish our country also would do.

      • vincentchirico Oct 14, 2013 1:52 PM Flag

        If PBT434 goes into phase 1 trials it will be definitely shoot the SP up, as investors will see the company's fate does not lay only in the hands of Pbt2. Although PBT2 is the golden egg, I feel that our market cap is so low that if pbt2 fails and PBT434 is in human trials, we should still be at the same market cap we are at now (though I find it hard to believe that Pbt2 will completely fail us)

      • Thank you, are the guy that keeps up with PBT434. The main value (to me) of PBT434 is that PRAN will never trade below $1.50 with this "backup" drug available. In the long run of course it could be a huge positive.

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