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Prana Biotechnology Limited Message Board

  • kadaicher1 kadaicher1 Jan 2, 2014 2:50 PM Flag

    I think AD results will break early.

    They did last time and this is a smaller trial, although with much more imaging data. Prana have not raised any serious cash at these levels, and they must be looking at the scans,can only mean one thing. Prana have the benefit of the worlds foremost imaging specialists looking at those scans. Not only do they have the placebo to compare against, but also the historical results from the AIBL study which has been tracking biomarkers as patients convert to MCI and then Alzheimer's for the last 8 years. Exciting times ahead.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • It's great to read that from Kadaicher, quality over quantity as always in regards to your posts.

    • Kadai, I have said for weeks that the ATM was turned off after they saw the scans.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • I still have not heard (like the elephant in the room) anyone weigh in on HD news coming firs and believe, as I have said before, that, if it does, would not be as beneficial to investors as AD first.

      • 2 Replies to jakebanner1789
      • A few people have mentioned it. I bought in even though the case for HD efficacy in humans isn't there yet and the results for that study are likely to be available before the AD results. I know one or two people will want to slap me silly for saying that but I don't think it's unreasonable. In the roundworm and mouse studies PBT2 was basically getting delivered over the life of the organism. I can certainly see why they did the study. And I'm not saying the human study won't be successful. But they use the word 'model' for a reason. Given the info out there I think it's dangerous (from an investing standpoint) to draw too many conclusions about whether it'll work or not in humans, or if it does work how well it'll work. At the very least, it's another route to get PBT2 to market and the preclinical studies are interesting. That's plenty for me.

        I'm a little more excited about the AD study. Think the underlying scientific evidence for AD coupled with the previous phase 2 studies for PBT1 and PBT2 make it a really good speculative investment. That's why I finally bought in after watching the stock on and off for the last 13 years or so. We're close enough to the AD results that I'm willing to sit tight through the HD study results.

      • Jake, like I have always said---It is a false wall of worry and a non event unless it is positive. This stock is only a $300 million market cap and way undervalued. Who is going to sell it down that has not already sold like you because of fear of inconclusive hd results. How low do you think the market cap can go with AD results only weeks away? It will be trading higher 1 week after hd results if they are inconclusive and it will triple the next day if they are positive.
        How's that for a weigh in? You want to tell us what market cap you think it will go down to if the results are inconclusive for hd with AD results perhaps a couple weeks later?
        How low does it have to go before you would pull the trigger for a company whose AD results could give them a multi billion market cap overnight?

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • The benefit even I can see that everyone understands or gets interested when sees a change. It was about four years when I saw a photo in the studies of Curis's cancer trials. It was a carcinoma around an ear that had disappeared only some scar left. I got interested , studied more and made money. I can still see it. Investors around the globe are greedy and anxious but they don't want to waste time. So they check quicly companies they read about. A picture hits at once and the memory stays. A picture tells much more than thousand words that you don't even understand. How was Cris photo Pivalde , do You remember it ?

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 3 Replies to ykinposti
      • Yki, I am still with Cris. Unfortunately Erivedge sales has been weak untill now. However the pictures were great. I am sure we will get equally strong evidence both in HD and AD with PBT2. PET scans perhaps are easier to interprit but perhaps even more important is to get computer readings of MRI scans hopefully demonstrating regeneration of brain tissue as we could see in mice.

      • The PIB/PET scans in the results are huge for both trials. If the biomarker secondary outcome measures show target engagement/biomarker improvement on the scans (reduction of plaques) - this will be a visual factor that will produce global interest - the news will go viral, and most big pharma's are already pushing for the FDA to cave even more by approving drugs hitting the "biomarkers alone" in the preventative and early stages of AD. Prana will have the first such trial coming to the public with the images showing that improvement visually.

        We will set the new benchmark, and if cognition and executive function are proven then we may also shore up the more stringent bar the FDA has originally set in their earliest draft guidance - essentially saying - yes, we can modify the disease to the point of cognition and executive function improvement.

        I think a lot of eyes are on this trial for this very reason.

        If Prana cannot improve cognition/executive function in the IMAGINE trial, then big pharma will have their opportunity to push hard for biomarker only approval scenario's from the FDA on the existing drugs already in phase II/III.

        Such a push by big pharma would be a much harder battle to wage if Prana has the goods to validate the FDA benchmark for acceleration. The Holy Grail.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Kad, I think the chances of early results are definitely a possibility if not a likelihood. They pulled it off last time, and the trial is not spread across twenty something sites across two continents - the obvious problem with REACH2HD were the data gathering logistics that match those of any larger trial.

      Here with IMAGINE we have 4 sites to manage, all locally in Australia, if I am not mistaken.

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