According to my calcs, PRGN best buy at the moment
I just started a position on PRGN, bought 5000 for $0.68 a piece... Can't believe this entry price...
The conclusion of my analysis is that the fair value should be around $3, after I reduced the value of ships by %50. The leverage is modest, they have plenty of cash and a nice investment in TEU. The stock is selling now for the price of the TEU investment, meaning when you buy PRGN you get the ships for free, and the ships are worth more thean the bank loans, so there is value there of at least $80-100 million.
I am 100% sure to make money on this. It's just a matter of time and I have plenty. I have been following PRNG for years and now was the time to buy, at the peak of panic selling.
The other stock I have is RAS which is also very undervalued.
I held more than shipper to the brink of BK, including GMR, losing the equivalent of a small house in the process. Like PRGN they were losing money for a while, and yet no analyst ever had a sell on them. So much for analysis. It doesn't take rocket science to see that a money losing company with high debt in an industry looking at 2 or 3 more years of suck, is not a good bet. Me gone.
be prepared to watch this stock suck for awhile longer ...
I sold off a different loser (JASO) for tax purposes this morning, briefly considered putting it into PRGN (dollar-cost-averaging) and then put it into STD instead. At least with STD, I *know* it will go up in the next 12 months (and if not, then I get paid a 10% dividend to hold it). IMO PRGN will not move up until there is significant consolidation in the shipping industry and the oversupply of ships is fixed. That's probably 2 years out.
What is the point of waiting to invest in shipping when everything is looking good? Prices will be 4 times higher by then... I believe that the time to buy is when things are looking ugly, and then get that 400% return in 2-3 years.
1. Market cap of PRGN right now = Cash on hand. 2. You get TEU investment free. 3. You get ships free.