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Paragon Shipping Inc. Message Board

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  • mario_luis_gomes mario_luis_gomes Dec 13, 2011 11:44 AM Flag

    According to my calcs, PRGN best buy at the moment

    What is the point of waiting to invest in shipping when everything is looking good? Prices will be 4 times higher by then... I believe that the time to buy is when things are looking ugly, and then get that 400% return in 2-3 years.

    1. Market cap of PRGN right now = Cash on hand.
    2. You get TEU investment free.
    3. You get ships free.

    Whats not to like?

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    • You are right, the PRGN fundamentals are sound considering the sorry state of their sector ... that doesn't mean the stock price will go up. Beware value traps.

      My guess is that 2012 will see an improvement in BDI, mainly due to increasing demand from China.

      • 1 Reply to furball_80110
      • What makes you guess that 2012 will be better?
        "In the first eleven months of 2011, 1,050 bulkers of a cumulative 88.5mdwt have entered service, according to data compiled by Clarksons.
        “This is the first time that more than 1,000 dry bulk vessels have been delivered in a single year, and already in the year to the end of November, deliveries are 8.5m dwt higher than in the full year 2010,” said analyst Jonathan Key."
        And in 2012 the orderbook has 120 mdwt. scheduled for delivery.
        Not only does PRGN have a delisting notice, and will have to do something to get the price above one dollar, but ship values are falling which means they will again be in breach of loan covenants.

 
PRGN
1.55-0.19(-10.92%)May 4 4:00 PMEDT