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Dynavax Technologies Corporation Message Board

  • jbird408 jbird408 Nov 29, 2006 6:31 PM Flag

    disappointment

    I'm concerned that this board doesn't have a clue. There has not been any mention of potential sales at all. Therefore, I will spread some wisdom.. they potentially will have $1.0 billion in annual sales by 2010-2012. .. at a 60% profit margin that equals $600 mil in annual earnings. Do the math. $600mil/38mil.o/s = $16.00 per share earnings.
    times a conservative 30 PE ratio = a $474.00 share price.

    Can someone provide me with substance on this board or do we have a bunch of gamblers that don't care about the future potential of this great co.

    birdman

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • I would take a more conservative approach. Discounting for present value, and assuming DVAX is a one-hit wonder, and all of their other drugs have no value.

      500M in sales, 60% PM, 58M shares out (one or two equity offerings) equals about $5/share in earnings.

      Giving it a PE of 20 means DVAX is only worth about $100/share today.

      So the market is discounting a lot of unknowns. Is there any independent verification? The numbers sound too good to be true.

      I just can't see pipeline starving big pharmas leaving this stock alone. I do agree that further appreciation is probable. After a correction DVAX could easily move toward the middle teens.

      Good luck to all!

    • Currently, GlaxoSmithKline rakes in about $450 million a year from its hepatitis B vaccine, while Merck takes in about $270 million, according to Pacific Growth analyst Katherine Xu. Heplisav will likely reach market in 2009, Xu said.

      Dynavax had revenue of $14.7 million in 2005 from grants and collaboration with other companies, and doesn't currently have any products on the market.

      Xu owns Dynavax shares, and her firm seeks investment banking business from the company.

      • 1 Reply to kimeisler55
      • the numbers don't lie. You tell me the revenues and earning will be based on what you know.

        I presume $0. You got to have vision and patience. If we knew the future, the stock would already be $474 per share. We're buying it at $9.00 per share. Hold off on letting anyone in on this projection until i load up the boat tomorrow. i'm hoping i can get in in the low 9's.

        birdman

    • That's four to six years away.
      Not many investors will wait that long for a (potential) return.
      FDA could neg in a million ways, etc.
      Show us revs after a q with a product in the real world, and then let's talk real valuation.
      Until then...this company makes NOTHING of sunstance.
      PS Total hep b vac revs are around 700 mil...split three ways in 2009 (!!!), even with no better meds in the interim from others, that's 350 for dvax, if all goes perfectly.
      For every ten drug companies where dvax is now, there's a dozen or three that never go anywhere.
      Factor THAT in, and this is a long shot.
      Period.
      It's been three years since this pos ipo'ed at its present price, its "miracle breakout" price.
      Where's the value there?
      Nothing new for dvax.

      • 1 Reply to thoughtsbecomereality
      • why would you spllit it three ways. DVAX's drug is clearly more effective than the others. I don't know about you, but
        I'm taking the drug is 100% effective...split the rev one way...dvax's way.

        Also, if this drug is that good, they may have an immune repsone to fight all diseases. This news only lets us know that their method is valid and has HUGE potential.

        I have not counted any other vaccines, i.e anthrax,et.

        This is the best i've seen since I bought Amgen in 1985.

        birdman

    • jbird408,

      How did you come up with $1 billion by 2010-2012?

      TIA.

      • 2 Replies to ajssi
      • The analyst estimates that Tolamba could reach peak U.S. annual sales of $372 million in 2012, or $512 million worldwide, given a 2009 launch.

        Currently, GlaxoSmithKline rakes in about $450 million a year from its hepatitis B vaccine, while Merck takes in about $270 million, according to Pacific Growth analyst Katherine Xu. Heplisav will likely reach market in 2009, Xu said.

        Excuse me $1.2 billion

        I think this is conservative.

        birdman

      • I'tell you, but I would rather you dispute it first.
        If I give you the answer you won't learn.

        birdman

 
DVAX
1.457+0.087(+6.35%)Jul 29 4:00 PMEDT

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