If the FDA was going to give full approval, the wall street crooks who get insider tips ahead of FDA rulings would be buying like crazy and driving up the price. The price is flat so the best we can hope for is limited approval.
Really...no one can know for sure. As for the "expected" run up before approval....look at TTNP. Some of the best FDA plays have had no run up before the approval. the more people that are in it prior to approval..the less people there are to buy after the approval. No run up means higher gains upon approval.
That's wrong. If Wall street knew limited approval or no-approval was coming they would have pulled out by now. Volume has been too low to indicate they are changing their positions. As of 12/31/2012 they still reported more than 85% of ownership. Only a few weak retail holders are liquidating now.
We are talking about a very small cap stock in THLD that has seriously underformed the markets over the last 6+ months----no one has a sizeable bet on THLD shares thyat I can see from the filings. With $100 mil in the bank on a $250 mil market cap it doesn't take a lot to go right for the stock to lift. Sarcoma alone could add a few dollars on approval & that's right around the corner. If pancreatic surprises investors on the upside (no one is making big bets that they can) then you have a double digit stock----not a big reach. As far as all of the Phase 1 stuff that's too far out to put much of a valuation on it today.
Been trying to warn all of you for weeks. GSK will pull any tricks and stops to get this thing killed. I don't think there's even a chance of a limited approval. Best hope for Dvax is a CRL that only requests new safety information. More likely I think a full blown CRL with a brand new requested trial that will take years. Then GSK can sit back, kick their feet up and know they won't have to worry about upstart competition anytime soon. in the meantime, shareholders here will be left with a stock price sitting between 50 cents and a buck until at least 2015.
No wonder the shorts are loading the boat. Some are hedging with call options, but they don't really have to. This is one of the safest shorts of the year. And no, for the umpteenth time, there will be no pre-pdufa run up. Fools who've been buying the last week or so are incredibly simple minded. This will be trading at 50 cents in less than a week.