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Dynavax Technologies Corporation Message Board

  • koufax62 koufax62 Aug 28, 2013 11:44 AM Flag

    PRIMARY WINDOW

    of opportunity for GSK begins immediately after official FDA guideline for safety trial protocol released AND just prior to DVAX raise of capital to fund it! The logic is based on the elimination of a key grey area in the valuation process *(Hep data supports leading market share and remaining cost to bring it to market will then be established) In addition, in a "doable" trial scenario, GSK knows the B/O price INCREASES once funding is SECURED.

    Forget the past rumors! GSK knew all along which way the wind was blowing for Hep combined with still remaining patent protection on Energix. Prior to NOW there existed no strategic business motivation to make a move on a total DVAX B/O.

    Obviously the complexion for B/O is poised to change dramatically once only "expected" FDA news hits the wires out of DVAX.

    All just IMHO, but GSK HAS to have HEP from a business standpoint. The question is or will be, what they need to do to satisfy the STILL heavy institutional ownership of the common . Those guys haven't hung-in throughout all the none sense for nothing!

    Koufax.

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    • Good morning! Just had a thought that expands on the "foot dragging" (news flow) comment that I made earlier. If Gray is in fact sitting on good news, is it logical to assume that maximum effect to the positive PPS wise would be more likely achieved when money managers return from their Hamptons hiatus after Labor Day as opposed to a tree falling in a deserted forest that no one hears? Hmmmmmmmm!

      IMO, no news is good news through the remainder of this week.


      Just a thought to pass a little time and as of now, nothing really unusual, including the low volume retrace off the rebound from the lows. As far as I'm concerned, the stock is acting exactly as I thought it would since the June news other than the valuation bottoming a bit lower than I thought would be possible.

      We'll see!

      Koufax.

    • Bump to the top!

      Also, based on my exp in bio trading I believe (partially a gutt feeling too) the FDA will respond and things get kicked in high gear sometimes after the second week of September.

      Btw: who would have thought ACAD would go beyond the $6 mark? ...when it was trading in the low 2's? Ahh these damn biotechs.lol!

    • Forget the past rumors! GSK knew all along which way the wind was blowing for Hep combined with still remaining patent protection on Energix. Prior to NOW there existed no strategic business motivation to make a move on a total DVAX B/O.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Good to see rational responses! Great guys, it means knowledgeable investors are engaged in the action here.

      To continue on I'll touch on current valuation. As an example, even building in roughly 100M/120M (via NOT IMMINENT/ future funding) to the current MC the ttl valuation comes in around the 350M area. VERY REASONABLE and not even close to a stretched valuation even factoring in the presently shadowy "potential, projected, anticipated" time & money to full age group (18 - 70) approval/commercialization. Naturally with only a decently fair/favorable edict set forth by the FDA, the PPS should react very positively. Highly favorable or better than expected by the street in terms of expanded patient population and the stock will go parabolic. The just listed is INDEPENDENT of GSK intentions, however, the street will undoubtedly build-in a take out premium to the run up based on the obvious T/O synergies and the confirmation of an independently achievable regulatory pathway for DVAX.

      To be even handed, the/a potential rally in the shares should also be "capped" or establish a "pre-funding ceiling" *(significantly higher than today's close so not much of a negative at this point in time). That is when I expect GSK to start getting serious and the overtures begin.

      As for what appears to be foot dragging, I personally was prepared for a Sept news release anyway. The low volume walk-down has now entered big opportunity territory for those that missed out on the lows and nearing add to position status for myself and I'm sure many others.

      Keep up the dialog boys! The illusion of apathy and disinterest is about to get very exciting!

      All the best,

      Koufax.

    • Good post Kou! Am thinking along the same lines. The question is; when will the FDA and DVAX finally provide us with the roadmap. At this point I could care less about 6k vs 15k test subjects as long as we have a clear path laid out to achive the new test. Once we have this, GSK might make their move at that time just prior to DVAX raising the capital needed for the trial.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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