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Verizon Communications Inc. Message Board

  • southi25 southi25 Jun 3, 2007 8:15 PM Flag



    First off, let us all agree that the Street "buys low and sells high", ok?

    Second, let us face the fact that stock investing is not a game played by gentlemans' rules. It is a vicious free for all in which the Street intends to win. They do not "play" fair. They kick a stock when it is down and buy it up cheap, on the basis of what they reason will happen longer term. Then they smile all the way to the bank when the public starts buying it up later, when they finally see happening that which the Street reasoned would happen!

    Third, let us be honest and face the fact that the Street can (within reasonable limits...and that gives them a lot of lattitude) manipulate the price of a stock up if they want to sell it, and manipulate it down if they want to buy it. We won't go into the methods the Street uses at this time, but they are simple and as old as the market itself. These methods are employed anytime institutions find it to their advantage to do so. And they are very effective. Hedge funds have used some of them to such excess they have become notorious.

    Fourth, let us review the recent VG price behaviour and case history using common sense. The worse point for Vonage was when the case was "lost", the right to take on new customers was "lost", and "damages" and royalties had to be paid. Since then, step by step, the situation is dramatically improving. Seven infringements were reduced to three. Two now have workarounds with the third soon to be rolled out. Acquisition of new customers is allowed. And the entire basis of Verizon's suit is undermind now by the revelation that what they have patents on was previously public domain. The Verizon case may be overturned and Vonage released from having to pay anything. At the worse point in time the price dropped, but as the situation steadily improves, the price has not! In fact, the price periodically makes dips to a lower price than the price it fell to at the worse point in time! Can you figure out why.....using common sense? (Hint: go back to the second item!)

    Vonage does not "need" to win this case. They can pay the "fine", pay the limited royalties up to the point they implemented the three workarounds, and go on to be profitable. In fact, they may earn royalties themselves as other candidates to be sued by Verizon turn to Vonage to use their workaround solutions! Nonetheless, commons sense says Verizon should never have been issued patents for what was public domain. And an unbiased court is more than likely to see it that way. So, more likely than not, Vonage will get the case overturned and all the escrow monies returned to them. But,It will just be icing on the cake. They do not need to win the case. They can implement their workarounds, pay the monies up to that point, and go on to win big in the VOIP industry.

    Now, if you figured out why the VG price dropped even lower than at the worse time for Vonage, and why it gets constantly "kicked" down by the Street each time it starts to get up, then you'll likely agree with this next statement.

    The decision makers on the Street know Vongage is coming back! So, they are taking every "dirty fighting" advantage while they can. They are kicking it while it is down. And while it is down they are buying shares to close out their short positions, and they are buying shares to "average down" the cost of their long term investment positions.

    And when the average public finally sees that Vonage has come back, the Street will be smiling all the way to the bank!

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    • Sell your Vonage stock, forget it and put it behind you, move on to new ideas and positive issues from which you can profit. Don't be like the addicted gambler who hopes to win it all back but only ends up losing everything. We all back a loser sometime, it is knowing when to cut the losses. You are unable to predict when Vonage might make a profit let alone pay a dividend. That is shaky ground!

    • You must have a hallucinogen dispenser larger than a Medco distribution center.

      The only reason Vonage has anything resembling a pulse is because Small-Cap index mutual funds continue to automatically invest in Vonage, regardless of business fundamentals, company earnings outlook, or any other type actively-managed evaluation.


      1)Vonage is a one-trick pony that has NEVER been profitable. (thought perhaps we learned this lesson in the dot-bomb fallout 5 years ago ???)

      2) They have not invested $$$ in brand extensions or R&D to build out any extensable value chain

      3) They do not create any tangible ROE for investors, only tens of thousands of stock options for their get-rich-quick Executive Mgmt

      4) A new boat anchor to Vonage cash flow: Patent-infrigement payments to Verizon

      5) Another death knell to Vonange subscribers - the fact that they will now be charged the extra ~12%+ in court-ordered FUSF taxes on their monthly invoice.

      6) There is no value-add to keep Vonange subscribers from defecting to the nore robust VoIP offerings of the more experienced & larger carriers.

      Save your self . . . stick a fork in it . . Vonage is done

    • Once again you are correct, VZ is a strong buy.

    • I'll agree that buying quality stuff low is a good idea. But "quality" means different things to different folks.There's the rub!

    • Yea yea, just like the street did to MCI,Willtell and Enron.Jeesh!!!

    • Vonage business model is D.O.A.

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