"Any area that remains FiOS-less in the next 3-7 years will be deliberately excluded because the customers in that area are much less likely to be much less interested in / able to pay $100.00 plus per month for TV, phone, and internet"
Get out of the big city thinking! Customers in the rural communities are already paying $125 for comcast's triple play. Your kind of thinking is the real problem with VZ. Rural areas have been paying $100 plus for years. Do not think that Fios will be built out in 10 years. Just pattern the Fios roll out with how wireline started or how electricy was rolled out, read history. The Bell system grabbed all the cities that is how they became so large. Today is different, to a large degree, but still the it is still the same type of event. We have more Federal and state laws on the books today. You say that areas will be " deliberately excluded ", this is something that we know, but Ivan will not like you divulging this kind of knowledge to the gerneral public. Your facts purport Ivans image of Fios everywhere to the stockholders and the publics. Watch the negative connotations! People will start seeing the connection between buildouts and riffs/eipp.
I don't know the answers to all your questions, but they need to be asked. With all it's faults....the old copper network works....power provided by the C/O (which also has massive power back up units) ensures customers keep phone service when power is absent. The old Universal Service fund provided the funding for copper to be provided to rural areas, and my guess is that those copper lines will remain in service long term (since there is no fund to assist in the cost of building out the fiber network). Many people do not realize that when they use FiOS phone service...if they lose power....they lose phone service after the Verizon provided 2 hr battery back up is exhausted. At least Verizon provides some form of power back up.....Comcast phone customers lose phone service in tandem with power loss.
I beleive FiOS would technically fall under the "landline" business, but from what I've been told....it is somehow seperate from the traditional phone end of the company. I am sure it is not part of Verizon Wireless. I also have grave concerns over the security of the wireless network. I have read MANY articles of wireless phone calls being intercepted and recorded, and can't help but wonder how easily proprietary business information (both voice and data) may be subject to the same.
I also share your concern that Verizon is shedding so many employees with so much experience. I have personally experienced how difficult it is to get a "real person" at Verizon, and it eventually caused me to delfect to alternate providers. From recent articles I've read detailing Verizon's financials it's apparent that I am not alone (in leaving). Apparently Verizon Business recently experienced a notable loss in it's customer base, and landlines are continuing to erode. THAT is a direct result of too few people trying to do too much work. It amazes me how a company as customer driven as Bell Atlantic has become so unavailable to its customers as Verizon has. I empathize with you if you are an employee. Wanting to do the right thing, and not being able to is not an enviable position to be in. A CEO that fosters that environment needs to be replaced....I agree with you 100%.
I also agree with you that FiOS will not be built out (even to a 75% saturation) in 10 years. More than likely the cheapest, and most cost effective method will be a new technology that is in it's infancy now (as you stated.....technology is constantly evolving and changing). I am guessing that perhaps FiOS will then appeal only to high end business customers with a "need for speed", and who require a secure network.
Only time will tell.
I read the article, as well as saw the report on just about every local news channel as well. Fios was built out in the Philadelphia suburban townships YEARS before Verizon won local rights to provide TV programming in those townships. They sold only FiOS internet, and phone service until they were approved to provide television programming in those townships. FiOS lines are already spread throughout Philadelphia and they are already providing FiOS Internet, and phone service to many Philadelphians. The "7 years" quote is a marketing spin. FiOS is already present in the wealthier areas of Philadelphia, and the remaining lucrative areas that have not been built out will be in the next two years or so. Any area that remains FiOS-less in the next 3-7 years will be deliberately excluded because the customers in that area are much less likely to be much less interested in / able to pay $100.00 plus per month for TV, phone, and internet. Many people in those areas don't even own a computer and have no need for high speed internet.
To the point.....I DID read the article, and am familiar with the 7 year build out statement. I just see it as a "smoke and mirrors" marketing spin. Verizon has no reason to build FiOS into neighborhoods that can't afford it, and they alresdy have FiOS in most of the areas where there "might" be some return on their investment. Regardless....if it take Verizon THAT LONG....7 years from now FiOS will be a non-issue. Comcast will be offering free WIFI, has their headquarters in Philadelphia, and employs a lot more Philadelphians than Verizon does. There have already been too many mistakes made along the way....my neighbor lost her FiOS (internet, tv, and phone) during one of the Philadelphia Phillies World Series games, and it took two days to get it working again. She NEVER did get a live person from Verizon on the phone (she had to go online at work to electronically request service). Add to that Congress just AXED the 2 billion dollars for broadband expansion from the stimulus bill! It's all about quality service, cost, and timing, and Verizon is dropping the ball on all three. FYI another example:
Would you say that Fios belongs to landline's or wireless? Cell towers, how does that wireless signal get back to the host office, by wireless or landlines? Is Fios or wireless everywhere? The answer to that question is no.
Will Public utilities always demand that even rural customers, and I don't mean just outside Philly, always be served? The national digital TV transition will be an education to the wireless/fios proponents who think that no other place exists besides the large cities?
The cost of the fios build is still high on a per-user basis. Fios crosses millions of homes yet market share is very low nationally. If you build it and they will come is Ivans only hope. Ivan will be gone along time before Fios is at 75% in the old Bell Atlantic footprint. But build it and if someone comes up with something cheaper and close to the quality they will they still come? Technology does not stand still.
Wireless still sounds great in large cities, most of the time, but you know when people are using that second hand phone system, quality suffers on calls from poor locations. Calls drop, batteries go low and cost are higher, when you include the price of the phone. Just look at the yearly replacement cost of cell phones being dropped in the toilet. We are still investing in the wireless future, the build out. We have been buying and paying for it for the last twenty years. Licenses and airwaves have cost and are still going to cost.
Now you think Fios will be ready system wide in the next 10 years? Dream on. By the time the build is at 75% complete it will be time to be rebuilding todays fiber and muxes.
Now business wants to keep guest foreign workers in this country because of the high cost that companies paid to get them here because of there "skills". We at Verizon want to get rid of highly trained workers that already know how to build the network. We know that this is the way that Ivan pays for the Fios/Wireless buildouts. Just like that VZ wireless Commerical with all the support people being shown. This is a true oxymoron. We have all these people yet we are getting rid of them.
I did read it, but I also reside in the Philly burbs, and work in CC Phila, and Verizon has been laying fiber in the city for years.....just because they haven't been able to offer TV service doesn't mean they can't offer fiber phone/internet service over fiber. It's never been the "pipe" that was legally delayed....just what you can transmit over it. There is NO WAY it's going to take seven years to "fiber-size" Philly (especially if they use all the sub-contractors they used in the Philly burbs). It's likely about 1/2 done already, and MAYBE two years to completion. In the meantime the atmosphere has changed from one of "build it and they will come" to one of low cost alternatives....HDTV programming delivered FREE over the internet (and to your television), and phone service becoming a commodity offered by everyone and their mother for next to nothing (and in some cases FREE).
As I am sure you know Verizon Wireless is a "union-less" shop, and is the source of the majority of Verizon's profits. Verizon's CEO is a shrewd, selfish, self serving Wall Street-esq New York businessman, and his no. 2 man is Mr. Strigl (from Verizon Wireless), who is (also) no fan of the CWA. It's clear Verizon's CEO is driven to do what puts money into his wallet, and not what is good for the company, or it's employees. He committed to FiOS years ago (when it was actually a leading edge product), and because of the massive (18 plus billion dollar) investment....he cannot re-evaluate his direction without the threat of being ousted. Verizon has sold virtually every piece of real estate they owned to pay for FiOS (i.e. Bell Altantic Tower in Phila., Verizon Building in NYC, Verizon Building in Newark, NJ, the Verizon Building in Boston is on the market, and many C/O's). If the "ends justified the means" it would be the "right thing" to do (continuing with the FiOS rollout). Fact is.....it's NOT.....hard-wire delivery of internet, phone, and entertainment service IS NOT where the industry is headed....it's all about mobility....i.e. WIRELESS. Comcast is planning to offer free WIFI throughout it's footprint...ask yourself which is better free, and readily available, or costly, and landlocked? He's "bet the house" on a (now) antiquated technology, layed off tens of thousands of knowledgeable, quality employees, and Verizon's customer service is the worst it's ever been. He's even embraced the MCI/Worldcom business model (a method proven to end in bankruptcy). Geeez....Verizon stock opened at $52.00 a share when the company was created, and it's NEVER been close to that share price since. In the meantime he has pocketed millions (if not billions) of dollars, and he has manipulated the CWA to accept contracts that ignore what is happening in telecom, and abandon the security of their workers. His "Nynex" experience was in a copper world, and his insight to fiber (while at the time was visionary) is no longer applicable. Telecom has been, and is changing at light-speed, and Verizon's direction is stale. The company is being driven into the ground, and is in a downward spiral while he makes money hand over foot. If you are in the industry....I wish you, and your family the best, but be warned....a "high fiber diet" has been proven worthless, and Mr. SIDEWAYSBERG is not your savior in Philadelphia or anywhere in telecom, and ESPECIALLY not for the CWA/IBEW.
We just got word today that 17% of the union force will be RIF'd by the end of next week. Also heard that they are being offered a $10,000 signing bonus for those who want to bow out gracefully. Otherwise, you ain't gotta go home; but you gotta get the HECK outta here!!!!
Oh well, so much for that great contract!!!!