one more point ... WHEN inflation actually comes around , the 1st wave will not be identified as such , but
welcomed as the "economic expansion" has finally arrived and markets will bd fueled even higher , then
many companies will appear to be going gangbusters , but with big piles of cheaper money , when everything
finally hits the fan ... buy gold again ...
if there had been no banking meltdown/recession , then you would think that the stock market has done
nothing for 5 years ... allowing for a market that would rise 5% / yr , we are still far behind ... couple that
with the FED's actions and this market has a long long way to run .... p/e expansion alone could take the
DOW past 20000 .... but don't look for that right away .. there will be bumps and 20000 is probably at
east 3 years away , but more than likely 5 and you will still have to do your DD and pick the right stocks ..
Resist all the pundit talk and projections which is pretty much all bullish at this stage. The economies all over the World are in dire straits, profit margins are well above their long term trends and company revenues are struggling. Making $ going forward is going to be a lot harder than it was in the past 4 years. Meantime, money printing is the only thing supporting this market. There are a lot of events that could happen that money printing cannot address and shake this market. This entire market is a house of cards.
Top confirmed today with a close below 51.94. Monthly reversal coming next which means this has reached an important top which could last years. People are going to learn the hazards of reaching for yield at these kinds of extreme overvaluations. This past two weeks was typical countertrend rally which looks to have failed, we will now resume the downside.
but long term holders will see a nice rise in the div and a lower prices , will be loading up with
reinvestment to greatly compound the next cycle .... that's IF your scenario unfolds .. since we
are in unchartered territory .. who knows ??? 90 may be the top for VZ before any extended down
turn ... that's the beauty of large cap div stocks ...
After this kind of run, of course profit taking is happening. But in all down moves that could be the case. What I am looking at is the the momentum readings and the valuation which is way beyond what it should be for this kind of stock. I feel confident that this stock is going to experience a sharp reversal this month after which it might try a re-test of the April highs or it might not see that price again for a very long time, if ever. This has been touted as a "safe" stock by the sell side but in fact it is very richly valued and the dividend is no protection from the potential of huge losses.