Keep in mind Verizon wireless massive 4G build out is coming to a close which opens up more cash flow instead of infrastructure spending. Divy paid to VOD (45%) will now go to VZ coffers. Use $55, not $40 in your second scenario. BTW, VZ is trading at $46.56 so you should adjust your calculations to at least show current valuation. VZ is going to crawl back up before any deal is announced, JMO/SWAG.
Yes, there is going to be dilution but VZW is only going to grow in coming years on the back of large spectrum holdings. Many don't realize the intrinsic value in the limited supply.