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SeaDrill Limited Message Board

  • ccsharks ccsharks Jul 29, 2012 2:27 PM Flag

    In at $33 on 5/31 wait for divy or $42

    This is a tough call for me any suggestions? Bought 500 ahares on 5/31 at $33 was going to wait for divy annoucement in mid to late August to catch that run up but I think it may hit my target price of $42 before that since it is up over 20% in less than 2 months. I usually take profits (held in tax deferred acct.). I have always been a good stock picker/buyer but a lousy seller what do you think? Have this in my diverse income portfolio along with AGNC, ARR, NRF, NMM, RNF, & PDLI it is my 2nd biggest stock appreciation gainer behind AGNC and ahead of ARR. I just started moving my porfolios to income stocks avg. over 13% divy on combined postions with 12% sock appreciation over the past few months, this really works as long as you sell a position if it starts to go down to far.

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    • I second Chesakaw's recommendation that SDRL feels high here for buying in -- but for different reasons (that aren't based on technical analysis).

      I think the market as a whole is high and not at its lows for the year, and a receding tide will lower all ships. Heck, if the ECB disappoints tomorrow and Friday's jobs report is weak, you'll probably see a drop of at least 300 Dow points. SDRL would likely go down with it.

      As a long-term investor, if you are thinking of starting a substantial long-term position, why not wait and see how things go in the next few months or until SDRL hits a very attractive price target, whichever comes first? $35-$36 seems like a good target though there are no guarantees SDRL will return to that level. Certainly if oil drops, that will help a lot even though SDRL doesn't make its money on the price of oil.

      If SDRL's price comes down a little but not enough, you might consider selling some near-term naked puts at a strike near your target, in a quantity that works out to the same number of shares you'd like to ultimately purchase. (Ie, 1000 stock shares = 10 naked put contracts).

      All my opinions of course. For what it's worth, I am looking to purchase a good amount of SDRL shares (for long-term holding), but I am holding off for hopefully better buying opportunities.

    • I'm a geezer like you, and I bought my first Seadrill months ago at $41.20. I have since averaged down and am now ahead 3.5% excluding dividends. Buying a little now will get you started.

    • IMO if you're a long-term "retired pensioner" like me, this is an excellent stock to buy at this price, with great fundamentals and a 10% yearly return virtually guaranteed by the dividend.

      If/when it starts hitting new highs, this is usually a positive sign that the market likes the stock, not a reason to immediately sell; rather a reason to raise your medium-term target, since you're not a short-term trader.

      While not the best price, still a good price IMO.

    • Thapa: My guess is a min of 35, better below. Should buy below simple moving average and toward bottom of Bollinger Bands. Too hidh right now, for the debt carried.

    • Hi all. I am a retired pensioner and am looking to add some income to my holdings. Could any one please advise me if this is a right price and time to initiate a fresh long position in this stock. Thanks for your advise.

      Thapa

    • 3000 for selling now, or 400 for the divy.
      Wait for 41 which is 8 dollar gain, and 4000 profit, then sell, sell, sell.

      Simple math tells you it will take approx. ten qtrs. of divy's to make 4000.

      • 1 Reply to elstockjock
      • 3000 for selling now, or 400 for the divy.
        Wait for 41 which is 8 dollar gain, and 4000 profit, then sell, sell, sell.

        Simple math tells you it will take approx. ten qtrs. of divy's to make 4000.

        If it was a simple as you say we all may be rich

        IMHO this is a holding stock--not a selling stock --It is very hard to get good solid high divvies with growth --why sell the cow when you can milk it????

        Just a thought--no malice here! Have a great week --lets make some money
        Max

    • You certainly don't go broke selling with that sort of profit. Personally, however, I plan to sell none and front-end the dividend and reinvest after the ex-date, unless the price at that time is well above $42. IMO if SDRL starts banging out new highs above $42 in the next few weeks with the fundamentals as they are, I'm looking for the high 40s as much more likely than a return to the 30s.

    • If you are doing so well, why are you asking us. If you have doubts, compromise and sell HALF at $42 and wait for divie with the rest. Just my humble opinion.

 
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