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SeaDrill Limited Message Board

  • depakchopra depakchopra Dec 19, 2012 7:35 PM Flag

    Nothing goes straight down...

    Ignore the fundamentals if you want, but like I said, the reasons to continue accumulating after 2 years of accumulation, are not there anymore. And if there isn't tons of Oil in this country (and growing), why have the Oil and Gas Industry begun lobbying to export WTI?

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • U S may produce more crude but Washington continues producing more dollars so inflation offsets incresed production. India and China using more crude every month. The U S is not the only big dog any longer.
      Economics 101 is pretty simple.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to stdennis44
      • Economics 101 huh. Well you must have missed the class on Supply / Demand relationships. The IEA themselves are forcasting a daily surplus of 1.1 million barrels a day in 2013 (and that's with increased demand from China and alike). And the dollar is still a safe haven for world investors and not to mention, the entire world is engaged in the printing of money. This keeps the playing field even.

        Sentiment: Hold

    • julia4marco Dec 19, 2012 11:58 PM Flag

      I have thought about this also and came to a different conclusion. I am a long term investor and there are positions that I have held since 1997 and just sold this year ie AAPL,REGN. The oil and gas industry are mainly lobbying to sell liquified natural gas outside the U.S. where they can sell it for 3x as much as in the states. With India and China car ownership to go up over 170% by 2020 and other developing countries with growing middle class that wants all the amenities that we have here I can see a demand increase. When we talked the other day I was going to just hold onto what I had. I bought another 500 shares when it hit 36.50. Another thing I like is that they do not have U.S. restrictions and are not gulf drillers, where new laws can come in at any time. Many countries, many curencies and a very new fleet. So I have done a little homework and decided to keep buying every month. Also looking very hard for the right LNG play, still researching. If you have any suggestions that would be great. Merry Christmas.... Julie

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 2 Replies to julia4marco
      • zcar1 Dec 21, 2012 11:15 PM Flag

        I bought some GLOG at IPO. Pays 3.75% dividend and has new LNG ships being built.
        Small cap. Some potential?

        And I think I read that SDRL is coming to the Gulf. Low profile with BP, but with state of the art rigs.

      • Hey Julie,
        Obviously, I'm a heavy Energy investor. My portfolio is grossly biased towards it. I also believe in investing more or less for the long run (unless there is some major fundamental changes underway in a particular holding). Even after the great crash, my investments came roaring back and my portfolio has never looked better. Holding through that period was rough, but it has proven to me once again, that investing for the long run, is by far the easiest approach (and not to mention adding on the cheap). And I have always leaned towards dividend stocks as well. Ideally, I want a nice dividend with the chance of great growth too (easier said than done). Hence my attraction to SDRL. I got turned onto it a little more than 2 years ago and have loved accumulating it. I've never really had to think twice about doing so. However, as you know, I have suspended, my accumulation of SDRL and view it as a Hold now. And in all honesty, I have stopped adding to all positions in my portfolio. I've been rasing cash. The fundamentals across the board, not just here, have been worring me. A third quarter that was relatively week (revealing declining revenues), guidance coming down for the 4th quarter, unexpected large declines in consumer confidence, the fiscal cliff, higher taxes and expenses across the board in 2013 (which will lead to reduced spending), anemic economy, etc. // Now as an Energy biased investor, I love reading as much as I can about the energy sector in general, not to mention the reports associated with the stocks I invest in. So, that is why I am so vocal here. And I can tell you, this is not just a natural gas story in this country. It is very much an Oil story as well. Our oil is WTI (West Texas Intermediate). Yes, it is not as valuable as Brent, but it is just as important. The US dose not export it. We use it for our country and import Brent to make up the difference. However, now the Oil and Gas industry is pushing for the US to become a major exporter of Oil in the near future (which would be a Boom for our country). As I am assure you aware, we will be the worlds largest producer of oil in the not to distant future. Currently, we actually have alot more oil in this country than inventories reflect. There is just no infrastructure to get it to market. It is literally being stock piled on or near drilling locations. Tons of Oil and Gas companies admit to this like, EOG. In fact, EOG, has been one of the most creative at finding ways to get it to where it needs to go, and others are now mimicking them. And oil production is on the rise, as no one wants to drill for natural gas. Consequently, the industry is starting to lobby for the day, we may begin to export it. No licenses have been issued yet and we won't see any for some time now (at least a couple of years). Even Natural Gas, in it's abundance, has only had one license for export issued. That license was awarded to Cheniere Energy (LNG -this is the ticker). LNG is the only the only game in town (as of now), for the exporting of natural gas. So, if you want to play the natural gas export game, LNG is the only way to go. In the last 2 years, it has gone from $2.50 to $18. But you should know, it is still a speculative play, as they are hemorrhaging money, and thier export facilities won't be ready until 2015. However, they are the only game in town and therfor have a great advantage over everyone else who has applied for, but yet to receive licenses to export. Consequently, LNG has been signing purchase agreements like wild fire, with other companies that look to distribute thier exported gas. This in turn, has enabled them to secure the financing for thier export facility in Louisiana (it is under construction now). So, caveat emptor, but there is undoubtably a good chance LNG will make it through this and could have amazing returns. And if you like the dividend and possibility of growth with SDRL, you should also check out Lynn Energy (LINE). It's a US Oil and Gas producer, with the potential for high growth and a massive 8% dividend. It has been one of my darlings as well and I highly recomend it. If, I didn't have a position now, I would consider getting into it at this level. It's a great entry level price and gives you a good price point to start to build a position around. But, I have stopped accumulating it as well, until I see how things play out in the oil industry and with our economy in general. And if I'm wrong about my current bearish outlook for oil, I don't really care, as I have accumulated plenty of SDRL, LINE and a multitude of other investments. So, in my eyes, I can't loose. Worst case, I will have to find a new investment for the cash I raised, during my HOLD phase. Best case, I start adding to SDRL in the $33 to $35 range, as I have no doubt, that SDRL, LINE and many other energy companies will be trading higher in the future as the economies of the world get through this economic malaise, population continues to explode and the third world becomes more and more industrialized. Your purchase of 500 shares at $36.50 will eventually translate into big money, but for me, I feel, I will have better oppurtunities to add to my positions at better price points than the market is currently offering. Like, I said, I feel like I win eitheir way. Best Wishes! Mark

        Sentiment: Hold

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