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Cumulus Media Inc. (CMLS) Message Board

  • dank062 dank062 Oct 9, 2009 3:31 PM Flag

    Open For Suggestions

    This industry stock price seems to move up and down together ore often than not.
    How about an ETM/CMLS spread trade today

    With ETM up and CMLS down, how about long CMLS and short ETM?

    Any Thoughts?

    Best Regards,

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    • It's probably a money maker....but with an expectation of ETM being at $10-15, in a year, I'm not sure I'd want to short ANY radio stock. Better to just buy CMLS, and forget shorting ETM.

      The "problem" is that ETM is the only major player trading over $5, which is the price that institutions are "allowed" to buy. So the institutions are going to continue to choose ETM, which is going to allow it to trade at the highest premium (on future price/earnings and EV/EBITDA).

      Don't be shorting a radio stock selling at only 5x next year's net income (ETM)....that is going to earn, pre-tax, probably something like 4x its interest expense.

      • 1 Reply to longtimefollower
      • Longtime,

        I had just done a decent amount of selling just over $7, when I read your post that you were not letting go of any of your ETM. You said it was partly for cap gains treatment, but sure enough, I now regret at least part of those sales.

        I agree with you that ETM is the Cadillac of these radios.CMLS and ROIAK are bound to be more volatile. RGCI is in my view a wild card that deserves only a modest sized investment. It could be a huge homerun, or it could fall into the red. I think that the other 3 have a clearer path to steady profitability.

        Longtime, love to hear what else you are in.

        My fave stocks outside the radios are prob. EBIX (a nice growth story that just completed a reportedly accretive acquisition), TCAP (a small private equity player yielding about 13%), PRSC ( a social services provider that does biz in more than 40 states and that is trading at a cheap multiple).



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