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Cumulus Media Inc. (CMLS) Message Board

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Nov 3, 2009 9:59 AM Flag

    Why is this bad news??

    Station operating income down 14%, and adjusted EBITDA down 20%. vs. year ago quarter. In the June quarter, station op. inc. was down 13%, and adjusted EBITDA was down 15%. Yes, I guess the percentage declines didn't "moderate" from the year ago quarter...but on an absolute percentage basis, I'll take that kind of overall modest decline any day (considering the revenue drop they are suffering). When ad revenue turns up (which is happening as we speak), I think the Street will see the bottom line earning power of CMLS.

    I think what happened is the FOOLS were spooked by the intangible asset write down....and the resulting bottom line loss. Would love to see this thing close at $2.25 or higher, when the smart money buying overwhelms the selling. (I hope!) I've bought a substantial chunk, this morning, between $1.65-1.80.

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    • Adjusted EBITDA would have only been down about 16% over the year ago quarter, if you exclude the $780K severence expense for the old CFO...versus a 15% decline in adjusted EBITDA in Q2 09 vs Q2 08. What is so bad about this, considering the decline in political revenue versus the year ago quarter in Q3 they were dealing with?

    • I should have said the percentage declines didn't moderate in comparing Sept '09 to Sept. '08, vs. comparing June '09 to June '08.

      • 1 Reply to longtimefollower
      • Pretty awful news in my book:

        Sequential EBITDA down, Interest expense up.

        Total debt is up a few pennies from what I can tell.

        Thats all I need to know. Managing a leveraged biz is like dancing on the head of a pin. You have got to get the debt down ASAP.

        ROIAK and ETM are both doing fine. Both reduced their debt. I added to my ROIAK after the earnings release over there. I am a former CMLS shareholder. Was happy to get out with a modest profit.

        In fact, I saw basically nothing positive in the CMLS report. They certainly added no positive statements in the press release. It was a very "guarded" press release.

        Maybe the CC will have good news, but I doubt it.

        I value your opinion Longtime, but what have I missed?


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