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Cumulus Media Inc. (CMLS) Message Board

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Apr 30, 2010 2:40 AM Flag

    Still looking at 70-90 cents in full year EPS, fully taxed.

    Based on, roughly, $5-6 million in additional incremental pre-tax income over year ago period in Q2, $6-7 M in Q3, and maybe $8 M or so in Q4. (These are ballpark figures.)

    The best number to go with for the year is 75 cents. I'd imagine we can sell at a 10 multiple, by the end of this year, which would put the stock at around $7.50, and be a 50% move from current levels.

    It's hard to see why the stock would sell off on an earnings report such as this; however, there may be SOME people that want to get out with their gains "no matter what." That would be a tremendous buying opportunity, if it happened. ($4-4.25 would be a great place to buy more.)

    Who knows, if this sector comes really into favor, and the Street projects further growth in 2011, like EPS of maybe .90-1.00 or so, on top of the 75 cents or so ballpark I expect for 2010, maybe they'll stick a 12-13 multiple on this year's earnings, sooner than we realize, and the stock can sell for as much as $9-10, by the end of this year.

    More broadly, I'm guessing there'll be support at $4.00-4.25...and resistance at $6.50-7.00, in the short to intermediate term.

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