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Cumulus Media Inc. (CMLS) Message Board

  • longtimefollower longtimefollower Jul 31, 2010 2:31 AM Flag

    Back over $3.

    Quite lovely.

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    • Call reveals some salient facts -

      - New bank amendments show Lew eventually wants to merge CMP and CMLS
      - 2H 10 should be very, very strong due to political advertising
      - interest rates on the bank debt have dropped and have significant room to fall further. In addition, a very large swap transaction comes off the books in 3/11 that will lead to a very substantial drop in interest expense assuming federal funds remain where they are today.
      - expect the company to do a sale/leaseback of their tower assets. They can be sold for a multiple far in excess of what radio stations are valued at.

      I see eps of $.80 cents fully taxed for 2011 or under 4.0x p/e. That said, the substantial NOL's assure one the company will not be a cash tax payer for a long time.

      • 2 Replies to nhlabman
      • I see you only post on radio stocks. Do you work in the biz?

      • Excellent post.

        How many NOL's do we have?

        What can they generate from sale of towers?

        What kind of int. exp. savings do you see, after the swap comes off. (Can you walk us through it?)

        What is your fully taxed EPS number for 2010? Do you agree 70 cents is reasonable?

        What do you think the odds of a going private transaction are? (Company seems like a "sitting duck" at these price levels. (The stock is going back to $4-5, anyway, imo, in the fairly short term, so this is "their last chance" to get it as cheap as they possibly can, for the pending lengthy upcycle.

 
CMLS
4.59Aug 29 3:59 PMEDT

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