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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. Message Board

  • opusgator opusgator Sep 15, 2002 2:11 AM Flag

    3rd quarter results

    the reason AMD will not wilt away is the possibilty for the third quarter 2002. I forsee AMD selling 8,000,000 CPUS this quarter at an average price of $76.00......the bashers feel this average price is too high, but I disagree. the mobile chips are selling well, and so are the XP2200 and XP2000...this gives a CPU revenue number of $608 million....add in $240 million for flash and chipsets/mobos, and revenues may very well reach $850 million....with cost cutting and lower manufacturing costs, breakeven is around $875 million, resulting in a loss of $25 million or $.08/share.....if they can achieve this figure stock will soar, and show a profit in Q4

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    • Please explain the math to me..

      Why would anyone buy a TOP OF THE LINE Athlon XP 2200 a with only a 266MHz Front side bus 384K Cache and a clock speed of 1.8GHz Price=$168.00

      When they can buy a Low End Intel Pentium 4 with a 400MHz Front side bus 512K Cache and a Clock speed of 2.0GHz? and For Less Money? Price=$165.00

      If they really wanted Top of the line why not get a Pentium 4 with a 533MHz Front side bus 512K cache and running at 2.53GHZ (And for only $245.00)

      These Prices are not in Lots of 1,000

    • Way too optimistic!!

      The third Q is gonna be tough. Hector only predicted around 6m CPUs this Q. We will probably be lucky to get that many, because duron sales are dying out.

      I'm looking for 6m CPUs at ASP=$70 and total revenues in the 640m to 700m range.

      Q4 could be close to break even, but only if the xp2400, xp2600 and xp2700 's come in volume.

      • 1 Reply to wrong_again67
      • .. Wrong again,

        .... AMD may make more Athlons, but actually sell only about 3-4 million with Duron market share gone and .18u Athlons gone and low Mhz and/or poor yields on the remaining .13u Athlons and channels stuffed.

        .... Athlon PR2400/2600 won't make any difference because they are coming way late and will be up against P4 3.0Ghz and 3.06Ghz by then, so the 'balance' will still be maintained meaning AMD continues losing $1/2BILLION LOSS quarterly!!

        .... In fact, the balance is prolly shifting toward Intel because of .13u Athlon problems, Ghz gaps, and delays.

        .... AMD was prolly left out of most Xmas models by now because delays caused them to miss model cutoff dates.

        .... Plus, OEMs and other CPU buyers view AMD as an unstable and unreliable supplier now that won't be around to back up warranties.

        .... Flash warranties prolly don't matter because cell phones are cheap and just tossed if they conk out.

    • .. OpusGator,

      .... You're not even close!!

      .... CPU Units only about 3-4 million with Durons and .18u Athlons gone now and poor yields on the broken .13u Athlons.

      .... And stuffed channels coming in to Q3 blocking new sales, possibly even causing more buybacks.

      .... HPQ and other OEMs replaced Durons with 100% Celerons in their base models back in late Q2, giving Duron market share, which was 50% of AMD's units, to Intel now.

      .... HP-branded PCs don't even offer PR2100 or PR2200. Paper 'unveiled' VaporAthlon PR2400/2600 not available till Q4 or 2003.

      .... Some OEM's even dropped Athlons and went back to 100% Intel-inside, since AMD didn't have a full line of CPUs anymore, so not worth bothering with.

      .... AMD also missed any back to school pickup with its broken .13u problems.

      .... Plus Flash prices are still crashing.

      .... Back in Q2, AMDsters also claimed, like you, that 'breakeven' revenues had fallen to $875Million, but it turned out to be $904Million, same as Q2.

      .... AMD hasn't announced any new jobs cuts for a year, so don't expect any costs reductions! Maybe job cuts will be announced around September 25th, same as last year. Look for 50% to 100% cuts this time because of AMD's severe losses!

      .... Expect about pre-tax $1/2Billion LOSS or -$1.50 for Q3 from AMD on Oct 16th!!

      .... Expect Q3 LOSS WARNING Sept 18th

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