you fell that Saxplayer001 is doing this forum a GREAT service in posting meaningful and accurate information for the benefit of all of us that are truly interested in AMD. IMHO, he has served this forum well and should be commended for his efforts...
Thanks Saxplayer001 and keep up your efforts, it saves me a hell of a lot of time. I have benefited greatly from your posts...
Buy AMD on dips and accumulate it for better than $10 to $12 per share over the next 10 to 14 months. Next year, 2004, should be a very good year for AMD...
" While a(I) bought back in last week I am also ready to dump my position in a heartbeat."
Absolutely. I wasn't very "comfortable" buying back in at around $7.20. I realized that it was Friday and that isn't a very smart day to buy. So I will arise very early Monday and check everything out before the opening and get ready to "run for the exits" if necessary. If AMD stock sells off then I hope that it will be an AWFUL (like the end of AMD) selling climax that finally purges the willing sellers out around here. But even if it does there is still a lot of stock hanging around above $7.50 to $7.80 that wants out. What I will watch carefully is how it approaches the $7.40 to $7.50 level. If the selling at that level has disappeared then it COULD more up easier.On other hand if it runs into selling at $7.30, as it did Friday, then down it goes....
I hope the Technical "read" at $7.20 was correct, but it is just Tea Leaves floating around the bottom of the cup. I wish that I would learn to deal with only easy stocks. I keep getting "sucked in" to the AMDs of the stock market. I definitely need help..
Good luck and good day.
I firmly believe that we are going to see one more big sell off of AMD. The big boys want their nose in the trough one more time before everything starts rolling out in September. While a bought back in last week I am also ready to dump my position in a heartbeat. I will be buying again lower before the end of the month. Good luck with your trades.
"Though I disagree on the $10 target"
I always look at the most conservative outcome. If every thing goes AMD's way there is no way to know how high the stock price can go. My current evualation is based on what some refer to as "Off the Balance Sheet" Assets. What most do not realize is that Balance Sheets book Debt quite accurately but the true assets are often "under booked". I believe that the FAIR MARKET VALUE of AMD's Assets are more like $10 per share about $2.50 below current book. Could be even better than that. However, it doesn't matter if the Stock Market refuses to accept that. On the other hand, If the Stock Market ever "buys" the AMD story there is really no limit to the stock price. The stock market is NOT rational!!! It never has been and never will be.
Good luck and I hope you are right about the low volume technical condition of AMD. Evidently, we both saw it the same. Of course, we may not feel that way in a couple of weeks if we get a climatic break of the $7.00 level....
The bashers are abash with inconsistencies. Their game is FUD.
Their reasons: they are scared that AMD is for real.
But they don't want to check realiable sources; just Intel's marketing machine.
Did you know that AMD is believed to have enough money till Christmas.
So, yes, if AMD64 is not successful AMD is dead meat on a hook and may not last past Christmas.
All I said before was that Volume of production short term is not effected by out sourcing contract issues.
Thank you for your response.
If you are right, it is only to be assumed that Hector and Jerry have considered this in their projections for needed manufacturing capacity.
All I can say is that I have not heard anything about any new facility manufacturing being considered for a long time.
In any event, even if you are right, this(hitting out sourcing ceilings) would only be a long term problem and no problem for 12 to 18 months.
Do you even attempt to find these contractual limitiations to read before you cite them as proof for your vision of the future?
The outsourcing limitation applied to Intel licensed copies of Intel chips. AMD has not made these since the K6. The Athlon is a RISC chip design that interprets and executes x86 instructions. This is why the Athlon was the first step in AMD being a true competitor to Intel. The next step on that path is AMD64 instructions. These are owned by AMD. Not licensed from Intel. The ability to execute x86 (32-bit) instructions must still be licensed, but how much longer will it be until that is no longer needed?
Point 2: AMD has it's own FAB. FAB 30 in Dresden just won a number of awards last year for being the premier FAB in the Semiconductor Industry. FAB 30 will not be "obsolete" for a number of years yet.
Are you aware that FAB 30 has 4 production lines? How many different chips are being produced at FAB 30?
Intel chips are priced higher than AMD. Why?
Because it has money to spend on marketing even its chips are not better than AMD. AMD has long been a clone to Intel chips, and corporation basically buy Intel chips.
This will change. Athlon64 and Opteron are innovations of AMD. AMD is one of the companies in the last few years owns the most patents. If corporations continue to recognize the innovations in Athlon64 and Opteron and the benefits they bring. Once the corporate sector is cracked open, AMD could very well be in a dominate position.
I don't think that contract still applies since AMD owns the rights to AMD64.
but,you make a very good point and if you are right about the contract then you are right that AMD is going to be hurting for the capacity to produce the volumes of chips needed to meet the demand for their chips.