air or water, that is the 45nm question? Intel bet on air, AMD doesn't have a clue. If AMD has to use very expensive immersion lithography for 45nm chips Intel wins, game over.
193nm immersion lithography
Of course there are solutions to problems but we are not speaking of two equal companies when you are speaking of resources. When Intel announced they not only proved the concept of High-K metal gate transistors they had actually moved on to mass production Intel had leaped ahead of the whole world in the technology lead. The leading research professor at Stanford even went so far as claiming Intel had found the Holy Grail of transistor development.
The funny part of all this is that when everyone was so down on Intel for relying on Netburst and the P4 and everyone was so high on AMD and K8 the work was going on for all of these technologies. In other words while all laymen where criticizing Intel for being a sleep at the wheel Intel scientist and engineers where hard at work developing all of these new products. None of this not even the C2D where developed to take on a single processor from AMD the writing was on the wall with the Pentium M that things where taking a very deficient turn in microprocessor technology over at Intel. Some tech sites and hardware enthusiast actually nabbed Intel in the act by forcing a Pentium M onto a motherboard made for desktop and they received very high performance levels. When the C2D was announced these individuals and sites where not that surprised by the C2D's performance since it was based upon the Pentium M.
So in fact you are correct China details and problems may be worked out but those problems are most likely being worked on now by IBM and AMD because nothing in the lithography world of high power Microprocessors is done in a vacuum if they have decided upon Immersion lithography then we should be hearing something very soon about AMD success for in reality there is about two yrs from perfecting the technology to mass production of that technology.
I don't doubt Intel is truly ruthless one tiny bit. I just don't believe they can completely corner the orders/shipments of any tool supplier. The equipment business is just to vast and complex to do that. Equipment vendors want to sell as many tools as they possibly can. It's called greed :)
>> Suppose intel actually tied up all the production of 45nm air technology so that Amd could not possibly move to the front of the line - and was forced to actually move to the BACK of the line. Wouldn't THAT royally screw Amd? <<
As far as I know, the platform for air technology (double pattern / double expose) steppers shares many components with the immersion-based tools (at least for ASML tools I don't know about Nikon or Cannon). ASML could probably convert existing AMD stepper orders into "air tech" systems, so I don't see how Intel could lock up the order line.
Nope, I am convinced AMD has taken a carefully calculated risk to proceed with the litho tech they believe will allow them to succeed. IBM may have provided key R&D data to assist them in making this decision (or not, who knows really), but the simple fact is that Intel continues to study both options, so it's far from a foregone conclusion that AMD's decision is the wrong one.
<<<explain AMD'S DESPERATE (huge error) move to immersion>>
Then it's IBM's desperate (huge error) move to immersion as well.
Therefore in the toilet are IBM Power 6/7, IBM Cell, Sony Playstation, Nintendo WII, MS Xbox, IBM Dept of Energy Roadrunner supercomputer, and co-processors from Clearspeed Technology (math coprocessor), Sun (Niagara 2), Nvidia (GPGPU), L7 communications, Tarari virus accelerator ,DRC math coprocessor, Cray Sea Star, Xilinx FPGA and numerous others.
When you speak of AMD as regards SOI/immersion, alert your fans that you really mean IBM AND AMD. Also remind your fans that you guaranteed 65nm SOI couldn't work because of leakage, so notify Dell, Newegg and others to yank all 65nm processors as they don't work.
Intel doesn't have a refraction problem. AMD DOES and it will be your problem too if you are a AMD bagholder.
Intel doing dry 45nm Chips is AMD's problem because AMD CAN'T, they have to run to mommy IBM for help. The problem is that mommy IBM has only costly unproven wet tech, and all you got is a wet dream.
Why do you argue with the facts. Are so blinded by greed that you can't see the wall that the writing is on. Intel is and has been manufacturing 45nm chips using existing dry tech tools. Intel's 45nm monsters will be unleashed when needed. Probably when AMD's Barcelona comes out. Multitudes of 45nm Penryn Chips will be pissing on 65nm Barcelona's parade. Costly unproven immersion not going to save your sorry ass!
Intel WINS! Lights Out for AMD.
If AMD has to use very expensive immersion lithography for 45nm chips Intel wins, game over.
The a above is fact that you lame brained AMD cheerleaders refuse to accept. Intel's ability to manufacture 45nm chip on their existing tools will bury AMD once and for all. Intel will do immersion when and if it's necessary. For AMD it's not a choice, AMD is forced to go the costly unproven 45nm immersion way just to try to keep up with Intel. Intel's train of 45nm dry Chips will run over AMD. AMD will be road kill. AMD R.I.P.
My point stands loud and clear, I am sure AMD is thinking the same. It's you who refuses the listen to the facts. Intel ability to squeeze 1 or 2 more nodes out of their tools gives them a huge advantage. It's AMD's inability to do likewise that forces them to spend big bucks on immersion tools just to keep up with Intel. Intels margins will increase NOT AMDs. Intel will bury AMD in 45nm dry Chips. AMD R.I.P.
Why should Intel use very expensive immersion equipment when they can bury AMD with 45nm dry chips. It's AMD that can't do 45nm dry, thats why they are forced to go with costly unproven immersion.
As a consumer I don't care how the chips are made, but I won't waste money for expensive AMD chips when I can get the same or better from Intel. Intel 45nm dry chips will have a huge manufacturing and margin advantage. Intel wins, game over.